It is expected to slow down the development of global trade in 2026 after an unexpectedly durable first half of 2025, reflecting a delayed slowdown in international trade From Donald Trump’s duties. According to the report published today (7.10.25) the WTOthe volume of global trade in goods is expected to rise by 2.4%this year, compared to the previous August provision to 0.9%.
However, the prospects for the following year are clearly more restrained, as the WTO significantly downgraded its 2026 estimates, now forecasting only 0.5% from 1.8% previously. This change reflects the expected delayed influence of commercial barriers to global flow of goods, which is expected to significantly reduce international trade next year, according to Bloomberg.
The WTO improves its predictions for 2025 but reduces them for 2026
These divergent prospects suggest that the full power of Trump’s duties to US imports by country and per sector can be postponed by next year, WTO said.
“With the highest duties that are now in place and the trade policy that is still extremely uncertain, forward market funding is expected to decline as the accumulated stocks are reduced and GDP growth slows down. Possible signs of lack of trade and manufacturing production have been observed in developed economies, including reduced business and consumer confidence and slower growth of employment and income. “, The report states.
Ngozi Okonzo-Juala, WTO Director General, stated during a press conference that the durability shown to ‘Unilateral’ Measures show that there is a basic group of economies that continue to provide stability to the world trade system.
“Three -quarters of world trade are still on the basis of WTO terms”, Completed by the Director General of the WTO.
Artificial intelligence program
The main factors that led to the strongest worldwide activity in the first half were the missions of goods associated with artificial intelligence, according to the WTO report.
In particular, on the basis of about 100 such product lines -Clacking semiconductors and processors, final computers, cloud servers and telecommunications equipment- Trade in this category was expanded by more than 20% compared to the previous year.
On the contrary, the increase in trade in goods outside artificial intelligence amounted to less than 4%, According to the WTO report.
The WTO pointed out that while products associated with artificial intelligence represent less than one -tenth of global trade in the first half of the year, they contributed almost half the total increase in trade during this period.
In 2026, the deceleration of trade will come “As the global economy will be cooled and as the complete impact of the highest duties will eventually be felt for a whole year.”, The WTO report said.