Continues to “burn” the US president, Donald Trump to sign the agreement to obtain a share of its natural resources Ukrainein the context of US pressures on peace with Russia.
Specifically, Trump tried to press Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelenski to let the US take advantage of Ukraine’s unused resources at a time when Washington seeks to secure critical mineral supplies. The deal was initially signed on February 28, but was doubted after an explosive meeting at the White House between the two leaders, according to Bloomberg.
The US appears to be responsible for delaying the completion of the agreementas officials in Kyiv stress that they remain ready to finalize the pact. Despite Trump’s statements that the deal could be completed soon, the focus of his government has been shifted to the mediation to achieve a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on the targeting of energy assets and possibly to the submission of Ukraine nuclear plants to US property.
Nevertheless, Trump’s obsession with Ukraine goods has raised questions about what the country really has to offer. While the US president refers to the proposed agreement as an agreement of “rare land”, Ukraine does not have significant reserves of rare earths that are internationally recognized as economically viable.
However, he is a renowned producer of coal, iron ore, uranium, titanium and magnesium, and or Extension of these areas could be profitable for the US.
Trump has argued that US has provided excessive help to Ukraine and has repeatedly argued, with no basis, that Americans have contributed much more than European countries.
Trying to recover the cost of American aid, he initially set some huge demands from the Ukraine -damaged war, asking for some time the equivalent of $ 500 billion by rare land – Materials that play a key role in defense and other high -tech industries. This request did not eventually enter the draft text of the agreement.
According to the proposed agreement, The US and Ukraine will set up a joint investment fund to rebuild Ukraine. Ukraine would commit to this fund 50% of all revenue that you would receive from the “future monetary” of its natural resourcesincluding minerals, hydrocarbons, oil and gas, as well as ports and other infrastructure.
This would be true for new projects and not to existingand could require large investments in mines and any processing facilities.
How is this agreement different from the formal US foreign policy?
The proposed agreement marks a Intense divergence from traditional US approach As for assistance to allies affected by conflict. It looks less like the Marshall Plan, the US Initiative to finance Western Europe’s economic rebuilding after World War II, and more so with the Treaty of Versailles, the post -World War I agreement that received compensation from the attacking Germany, Germany. Only in this case, payments would come from the invading country, Ukraine.
The deal would bring money to flow from A country that has already been financially destroyed by the invasion and requires about $ 524 billion to rebuild and recovery over the next decadeaccording to a study by the Ukrainian Government, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations.
Foreign policy is rarely altruistic. The Marshall Plan was a strategic US investment to help rebuild European nations as fixed partners, limit the spread of communism and expand the market for US products.
However, the proposed agreement with Ukraine is more clearly trading, according to which natural resources will serve in return for US aid to date. Trump said the pact would allow the US “to get our money back and get a lot of money in the future”.
Which goods is easier to use in Ukraine?
According to sources, Ukraine has at least 10 trillion fossil deposits. dollarincluding lithium, toner and titanium, but it is not known how many of them are commercially viable.
Wholesale raw materials such as carbon and iron and celestial, are probably the most reasonable deposits to target the US. This is because, after the mines are built and exported the materials, it is easier to sell immediately in the market compared to other materials that require additional treatment, such as graphite and rare land.
Treating these minerals outside China would require investment to facilities And this often implies environmental and technical issues. Another obstacle is that many of the goods that Ukraine could potentially be mined are currently well -equipped worldwide, so prices may not be attractive enough to justify the commitment of large capital.
What other metal deposits does Ukraine have?
Ukraine also wishes to promote lithium, graphite and titanium deposits available. Says he has the Largest lithium deposit in Europe – a basic metal in electric vehicles’ batteries – but Prices have collapsed in recent yearsas production increased much faster than demand.
As far as the titaniumUkraine does not necessarily produce the kind of US defense industry. It has no ability to produce titanium sponge, the form of metal used in jet engines, shields and other defense applications, according to data from the US Geological Survey.
Again, the extraction of this kind of goods is easier than their treatment. The processing of materials such as titanium, rare land and graphite would require many investments, according to the CRU Group, which specializes in goods data.
“Access to resources is a necessary but not sufficient step to increase the supply of these minerals or to create a larger volume of bid that is not mined or processed in China,” said Willis Thomas, CRU’s main adviser.
What about rare land?
Trump placed particular emphasis on rare land, elements used in a wide range of objects, including iPhones and laser -directed rockets, whose commission is dominated by China. The former head of Ukraine’s Geological Services, however, said that no modern evaluation of its resources had been done, according to S&P Global.
Beyond China, the largest stocks of rare earths are located in places such as Brazil, India, Australia and Russia, as well as the US itself, according to USGS.
As many critical minerals, Rare land is relatively abundant worldwide, but often do not exist at large concentrations to export and refine financially. The world market is also minimal compared to goods such as copper or oil.
Even if Ukraine’s rare land deposits are commercially viable, should be processed. Currently, China accounts for about 90% of separation and refining ability.
Another element to note is that the world’s leading miners, who have spent much of the last two decades looking for the planet for unused raw material deposits, have shown little interest in Ukraine before the war.
How important is Ukraine for oil and gas?
Ukraine has paid off attempts to increase gas production over the last decade. Is estimated to have about 5.4 trillion. cubic meters of gas reserves, including 1.1 trillion. Cubic measures of proven stocks, which are one of the largest in Europe, according to the NATO Center for Energy Security. It also has significant shale gas reserves, according to the International Energy Organization.
The country already has one of the largest gas pipeline networks and underground storage. Prior to the war, Soviet ducts could carry more than 140 billion cubic meters of Russian gas to Central Europe, an amount corresponding to More than 20% of the total demand for gas in Epirus. The flows, however, stopped after an expiry of a transit agreement at the beginning of the year.
In terms of oil, Ukraine’s moderate oil reserves would only represent a small fraction Those already under development in the US.
What are the US to offer in return for this agreement?
The agreement does not provide explicit security guarantees in Ukraine. Instead, it refers to a “Standing partnership” between the US and Ukraine based on their economic ties.
The contributions to the fund to be created will reinvested in works in Ukraine to promote the country’s “security, protection and prosperity”. Finance Minister Scott Bessed said the US can help promote war -torn Ukraine in a “great developmental trajectory”.
Zelenski had pushed for Official US security guaranteesbut US officials said Ukraine’s connection with the US through financial links would provide a de facto security shield. Worried that this will not be enough to prevent Moscow, European governments have pushed for a more explicit commitment by the Trump government to support a possible development of European troops to help defend Ukraine.
However, The idea of an ‘alliance of the willing’ to send military forces – proposed by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Kir Starmer – rejected as ‘simplified’ by Steve Whitkov, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, who also leads the negotiations on the truce between Ukraine and Russia, in an interview with journalist Tucker Carlson.