The proposal to end the war in the Ukrainewhich emerged from the summit in Alaska between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putinfocuses on persuading Kiev to give up Donbasthe industrial area to the east, the NYTs say in their analysis and explain why the Russian is specifically aimed at this area.
OR Russian -speaking area, is at the center of what Vladimir Putin calls ‘Basic Causes’ of War with Ukraine. The concession of the region to Russia is at the top of the list of its territorial and political demands.
Vladimir Putin tries to control Donbas from the 2014invading and attaching the region in 2022. Donbas has been the field of the most bloody battles of war and is the main focus of Russia’s attack.
Kremlin’s forces have conquered about 87% of Donbas since 2014according to data from Deepstate, a Ukrainian team that monitors developments on the battlefield.
The Russian forces are now targeting the 2,600 square miles of the area that remain in the hands of the Ukrainians. Without a ceasefire, the battle for Donbas is almost certain that it will expand next year and will cost tens of thousands of lives, military analysts say.
The fate of the area could form the outcome of the war.
What does Putin offer in return
The essence of the peace agreement discussed by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday remains unclear. The few well -known details come from the US president’s narrative of the discussion, in telephone contact with European officials and apparently Volodimir Zelenski.
Vladimir Putin requires the departure of Ukrainian forces from Donbas, according to 2 senior European officials informed of the matter. In return, the Russian president offers to freeze the conflict in the rest of Ukraine along today’s fronts and to provide a written promise not to attack again.
Donald Trump called on Volodimir Zelenski to accept the deal.
“Russia is a great force,” he told Fox News after meeting with his counterpart in Alaska. THE Volodimir Zelenski has categorically rejected the concession of any area that is not already under Russian occupation.
‘We won’t give up the Donbas’he told reporters.
Ukrainian authorities estimate that more than 200,000 civilians still live in Donbasmainly in the densely populated and heavy fortified industrial area inside and around the cities of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk.
Why Putin claims Donbas
By the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow annexed 4 Ukrainian areas. These included Donetsk and Luhank, who together are Donbas.
Of the 4 attached areas, Russia fully controls only one: Luhansk.
Vladimir Putin’s land forces have fought in 8 other Ukrainian areas since 2022, eventually withdrawing the troops from some and occupying parts of others.
However, Donbas is at the center of Vladimir Putin’s vision For the war, a vision shaped by his faith in the historical unity of Russian speakers throughout the former Soviet Union.
The Russian president initially presented the invasion as a defense of the pro -Russians of the area, who had fought against the Ukrainian government, with the military and financial support of the Kremlin since 2014.
This commitment makes Donbas’ control of a critical condition for Vladimir Putin to declare that his work in Ukraine has been completed, said Constantine Remzukov, an editor in Moscow with Kremlin ties.
Remzukov and other Kremlin commentators have said that Vladimir Putin may be willing to exchange other occupied territories to get the rest of Donbas.
“Donetsk is considered much more” ours “than Dnipro, Sumi or Harcov,” said Sergei Markov, a Moscow -based political scientist and a former Kremlin consultant.
What are Putin’s claims based on
Donbas has been challenged since Ukraine first appeared as a state in the early 20th century, when Ukrainian nationalists, communists and Russian monarchs fought for the region’s industrial wealth in a chaotic period after the Bolshevik revolution.
Most of the population of the region were Ukrainians until Stalin’s industrialization and terrorism campaigns led to the migration of Russian workers to the mines and factories in the area, the mass killings of Ukrainian farmers and the suppression of the Ukrainian language.
Until the collapse of the Soviet Union, about two -thirds of Donbas’ inhabitants considered Russian as their first language, according to census data. Russian cultural identity and language became even more dominant in the early decades after Ukrainian independence.
About 90% of Donbas’ voters voted Victor F. Yanukovych, a pro -nominee in Ukraine’s presidential election in 2010. The overthrow of Mr Yanukovych, then president, from protesters in Kiev 4 years later by Kievi 4 years later. Rebellion in Donbas.
The uprising created an anti -Russian reaction to the area. In the last Ukrainian presidential election in 2019, the Ukrainian section of Donbas voted overwhelmingly Volodimir Zelenski.
In the meantime, Vladimir Putin was turning to more and more warlike nationalism to try to gather domestic support after years of economic stagnation.
The propaganda machine tried to rally the Russians in the Donbas case, a course that eventually led to a total war.
Putin will stop in Donbas
Vladimir Putin has occasionally referred to the annexation of other areas of Ukraine, leading Ukrainian officials and many Western politicians and analysts to argue that the war will continue after Russia occupies Donbas, either by force or by diplomacy.
Their views share Russian nationalists and many Russian soldiers, who have invited him to continue to fight for the rest of the land in the other two attached areas, Hersona and Zaporizia.
Other philosopher commentators have stated that Russia will continue to fight until it overturns Zelensky’s government and to install in power a more flexible. Many independent analysts, however, doubt whether Russia has financial and military resources to expand its attack far beyond Donbas
The Russian economy is in stagnant state and its revenue is declining. This will make it difficult for the Kremlin to maintain the current pace of battles and next year without significantly reducing the standard of living of the Russians.
Vladimir Putin’s authoritarian governance and the weakened financial prospects can persuade him to be sufficient in Donbas, at least for the time being, according to some analysts.
“Russian society is in such a miserable state that it would be willing to accept almost any outcome of the war,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian policy expert at Carnegie Russia Eurasia. “We can imagine various degrees of discontent from some marginal sections of society – ‘over -patriots’ and their likes – but the Kremlin can manage it.’