Decline in inflation 2026 provides for National Bank of Greece, in a special analysis that it has published today (2.9.25).
Specifically, the National Bank of Greece provides for a gradual convergence of inflation with the eurozone from 2026 as temporary inflationary effects retreat and the productive gap is stabilized.
Inflationary inactivity are projected to insist on the rest of the year, with the annual change of both the CPC and the ETK showing a marginal only recession compared to the average change in June-July and remain about 0.3-0.4 percentage points of 20.
Inflationary pressure will also be maintained due to the fact that the annual basis for comparison of fuel prices is becoming less favorable, as their anti -inflationary effect is expected to gradually weaken in the coming months, as presumed by the data of the deadlines for the prices of the crude and the prices of the crude.
As a result, the average increase in ICC for 2025 is estimated at 2.8% and for ETK at 3.3%. For 2026, inflation is expected to decline (DBA) at 2.2% and ETK to 2.5% with a shrinkage of 2/3 of the euro -zone inflationary difference, compared to its current level, in line with the estimated level of comparative production gaps that will be stabilized.
The temporary effects of wage adjustment, with time lag compared to the eurozone, and more pricing increases in services, are expected to retreat in 2026, as well as current warming in the real estate market, minimizing additional inflationary effects.
Therefore, both the structural and the general level of inflation will mainly reflect the productive gap.
The expected acceleration of fixed capital investments in 2026 (to +9% per year by estimated 4% in 2025 at constant prices), coupled with the steady upward trajectory of employment, is projected to boost the production and potential growth rate of the economy in the coming years.
Additional benefits may also arise from the enhancement of the combined productive effectiveness of Total Factor Productivity.
At the same time, a mild slowdown in private consumption is expected (at 1.6% per year in 2026, but also in the medium term, from estimated 2.0% in 2025), which will gradually limit the current negative savings rate on a national -border basis.
As a result, the productive gap of the economy is expected to stabilize or even have a slight retreat in 2026, contributing to the decline of structural inflation, coupled with the alleviation or elimination of emergency – temporary effects by the other factors analyzed above.
These factors have led, in 2025, inflation significantly higher than the rate justified on the basis of the existing and already expanded productive gap.
At the same time, inflation in out -of -energy goods is expected to remain low with the duties, as they appear after the EU and US agreement, to be milder than it was estimated in April.
Correspondingly, and on a global scale, changes in US commercial policy are expected to have limited deflationary effects, without exogenous inflationary risks beyond the inherent in the US domestic market.
The slowdown in inflation in Greece could be accelerated in the event of further reduction in energy prices, if the persistent geopolitical uncertainty was limited, compared to current, more skeptical, market estimates.
The latter are awaiting relative stabilization at current levels of international oil and gas prices by the end of 2026.
Accordingly, the effects of the full implementation of US tariff changes to all their key partners and the maintenance or strengthening of the euro could work deflation in the following year.