The Greek exports which are most affected by the 10% duties imposed by the USA From 2.4.2025 the National Bank of Greece points out, with its study published today (16.4.2025).
The US market has emerged in a dynamic market for exports of Greek products over the last 6 years (2019 – 2024), absorbing 5.3% of Greek exports in 2024 (from 4.5% in 2019) and contributing 7% of the 6 -year rise. Despite the above momentum, the US total share of Greek exports remains relatively low compared to the European (as the US absorbs 20% of European exports) – resulting in analysts’ interest mainly on the highest indirect duties, through the financial blow to our key partners.
However, following a more detailed approach, the National Bank highlights 23 products vulnerable to the immediate impact of duties, since they have maintained the last 6 years in the US:
- constant export presence,
- cumulative exports of more than 10 million euros
- High dependence (more than 10% on their total exports).
The above products mainly relate to the food, materials and electrical equipment sectors. In particular:
- In the food industry, which has the highest exports to the US (€ 3.2 billion cumulative in 2019 – 2024, covering 7% of food exports), 9 vulnerable products are found based on the above criteria. The main ones are olives and olive oil, with cumulative exports of 1 billion euros each to 6 years to the US (and an exposure of 20 – 30%), taking into account olive oil flows to the US via Italy – Spain (absorbing 70% of our exports). Other foods with high exposure to the US is wine (17%) and fruits such as peaches (processed) kiwi and figs (10%)
- In other sectors, products such as cement (US exposure to ½ export), marbles (18% exhibition), electrical equipment such as resistors and circuits (80% and 30% respectively) stand out as well as other consumer products (eg jewelry, fur) with 10 – 25% exposure.
Consequently, to the extent that the above products are replaced, they are faced with a double challenge: to redirect a significant part of their exports to new markets and even in particularly pressing conditions (as their competitors will try), with downward pressure and upward supply costs.
To rise the exports overall
Greek exports rose 6.7%on deflated terms in the last quarter (November 2024 -January 2025), continuing the recovery tendency launched in July (July -October 2024: 5.3%) after the difficult start of the year (January 20). The upper march allowed the Greek share to boost the EU exports to 0.56%, from 0.53% in the same period last year.
Deepening the trimester performance:
At the sectors level, the majority was upward (in defruded terms), with higher potential being detected in foods (+18% on defruded terms) that covered ⅔ of the rise (with ¼ resulting from olive oil, which recovered from a decline of previous year).
Metals (+8%) and chemicals (+18%) also moved dynamically, contributing 1.3 and 0.8 percentage points respectively.
In terms of export destinations, as the performance of basic European markets of Western Europe and the Balkans (⅗ Greek exports) remain sluggish for 1½ years, exports have sought to compensate for losses in alternative markets.
In addition to the steady supports of markets in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, North America’s contribution – which is now being called into question due to the unprecedented aggressive US duty policy.