A new era of risks will open the enforcement dictatorial in terms of USAwhich are scheduled to be announced today (2.4.25).
According to Bloomberg’s analysis, the duties with which Trump has threatened are the most extensive US trade restrictions for a century now, will cause a “stroke”, which could be overthrown by the post -war global trading system, putting intractable financial problems.
Nomura Holdings chief economist Rob Subbaraman said that “the proposed mutual duties of the Trump government mean different things to different people.”
He said that “we suspect that the criteria for US mutual duties will be much wider than this, and even more difficult to quantify.”
1. In target trade of 33 trillion. dollar
While Trump has not yet identified the goals, he and his staff have called on the European Union, Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and India in an attempt to punish what they consider to be unlawful commercial practices.
China’s products have already been highlighted with a cumulative additional tax of 20%.
About $ 33 trillion in world trade is targeted and countries from Brazil to China are falling from 4% to 90% in their exports to the US, according to Bloomberg Economics.
The global commercial policy of the team’s uncertainty was launched yesterday, April 1, 2025, at the highest level in a record dating back to 2009.
The average US duty in all countries will probably increase by 15 percentage points this year, according to Goldman Sachs economists, warning that it will increase the core of inflation, weaken growth and escalate the risk of recession.
2. Transition to a ‘duty world’
The measures to be announced today will be the culmination of the steps so far since Trump took over his duties in January 2025.
The US government has imposed a cumulative additional tax of a 20% tax on all imported goods from China and are 25% in place of goods from Mexico and Canada. There is also a 25% global duty on steel and aluminum imports.
Trump also signed a Declaration on the implementation of a 25% duty on cars and some car spare parts imports, which will be in force on April 3 in Washington.
Further duties at the industry level, such as medicinal products.
Trump said his so -called mutual duties would aim to match the tariffs and non -tariff barriers set by commercial partners in US companies, including those who consider large trading surroundings with the US, some taxes and taxes.
For a while more than a month, officials are trying to follow his directive announced on February 13th for “fair and mutual trade”.
3.
For months, analysts have tried to raise the possible consequences of amorphous duties, based on a variety of scenarios.
Bloomberg Economics says that a maximum approach will add up to 28 percentage points to US tariff rates – creating a 4% blow to US GDP and increasing prices by almost 2.5% over a period of two to three years.
The impact on commercial partners, in all scenarios, would be serious. China, the EU and India could be at the top of the pain list on the impact on exports to the US – although their economies may succeed.
Canada and the countries of Southeast Asia will probably feel a greater overall impact, according to Bloomberg Economics analysis.
4. Risk of stagnation
Stastized, where slow growth is combined with persistently increased price pressures, is also concern.
There are parallels of the 1970s stagnant incident caused by oil shock, according to Columbia Business School’s Shang-Jin Wei in New York and former Asian Development Bank economist: “Both were very unpleasant times in American society. This time, we are in danger of repeating the unpleasant policy. “
Many, however, depend on the unknown – many of which will probably not be answered in today’s Trump announcements, including the exact final tariffs per product and country, retaliation for commercial partners and the response of businesses and consumers.
5. Various reactions to Trump duties
Commercial partners have adopted a variety of approaches so far. China, which has been focused on Trump for a long time, retaliated earlier this year, although the extra tax was lower than the American and was in place for a more limited set of US products. The European Union and Canada have taken immediate retaliation against the duties of the US president in the metals.
Many major economic forces have tried to negotiate exclusions from contributions. Countries, including Vietnam, are committed to buying more American products to try to deal with their surpluses with the US and reduced import contributions to a range of products.
6. Negative reactions to US markets
Ripple Effects’ US shares recorded their worst quarterly performance in 2023 in the first three months of this year, though much of the rest of the world has made profits.
US bonds rose almost 3%, partly thanks to growing growth concerns.
Gold has reached a high record and the dollar is weakened. Some investors argue that pessimism is excessive and highlight the opportunities for trade agreements in time.
7. Concern by the big US businesses
Many US companies have expressed concern about new duties that increase costs and lead to profit margins.
Foreign executives should weigh whether they will carry at least part of production to the US to bypass duties.
“Clearly, the global business community sees it with terror” given the lack of clarity and the high stakes involved in the equilibrium of an economy that represents about a quarter of world GDP, said John Denton, a former Australian.