Light on impacts that possible exports of Greek products could have any imposition dictatorial From the US he attempts to drop the State Budget Office on the House, analyzing in his second work text the immediate impact of US duties of 2018-2019 on Greek exports.
The study, entitled “US Tariffs and Greek Exports” (“US Duties and Greek Exports”), was prepared by the researcher at the State Budget Office in Parliament and lecturers at the Athens University of Economics and Business University of Athens Professor of Economics at Adam Smith Business School at the University of Glasgow and a member of the Scientific Committee of the State Budget Office in Parliament Marina-Eliza Spaliara and the Coordinator of the State Budget Office in Parliament and Professor of Finance at Adam Smith Business School.
In view of that exports are a key component of the growth of the economy and the state of the country’s trade balance, the research essay seeks to identify the vulnerabilities and the ability to adapt our country’s exports, drawing useful conclusions from its first change in its first change.
In 2018, the US imposed an additional 25% duty on steel products and 10% on the US aluminum products, while in 2019, 25% duties were added to a wide range of European Union products exported to the US and including, among other things, agri -food products, packed fruits and vegetables, meats, Fossil fuels. The list of Greek products that were targeted were excluded three basic export species: olives, olive oil and feta. These three products are the control group in the economist model of the study. Control Group is used to appreciate and understand what would have happened in the duties that had been duty if the latter had not been imposed.
Greek exports to the US and the world
Following an upward trend – which has been accelerated by 2020 – Greece’s total exports stood at 2024 to € 53.3 billion (from € 10.85 billion in 2000), while exports to the US reached € 2.6 billion (versus € 0.63 billion in 2000). Although the US accounts for about 4.9% of all Greek exports of goods and contributes about 1% of Greek GDP, they are the most important commercial partner of our country outside the EU and one of its five most important export destinations.
During the years of imposing duties, both Greek exports to the US and total to the world declined, up to € 1.3 billion (exports to the US) and EUR 35.1 billion (exports to the world), from € 1.6 billion and € 39.5 billion respectively in 2018, however, as well as in 2018. COVID-19 Pandemic and the euro’s exchange rate against the dollar and other coins combined with the difference in inflation.
The work text focuses on 20 sectors with exports to the US for the period 2000-2024. For 2024, exports to the US of these sectors amounted to € 1.98 billion, covering about 76% of the total value of exports to the US for that year.
The basic conclusions of analysis
From the analysis of the data elaborated by the State Budget Office in Parliament, the following main conclusions arose:
- In all the sectors examined by duties imposed by the US in 2018-2019, they have caused a slight reduction in the value of exports of Greek products.
- The individual impacts of duties per industry are highly heterogeneous:
- 8 branches suffered a statistically significant reduction in exports [«Αλιεύματα (Ψάρια)», «Τσιμέντα υδραυλικά», «Παρασκευασμένα λαχανικά, φρούτα εκτός από ελιές», «Ορυκτά καύσιμα», «Τεχνουργήματα από χάλυβα», «Κρασιά», «Ελαιώδεις καρποί», «Ηλεκτρικές συσκευές»). Η μείωση των εξαγωγών σε σύγκριση με την ομάδα προϊόντων τα οποία εξαιρέθηκαν από τους δασμούς κυμάνθηκε από 15% («Παρασκευασμένα λαχανικά, φρούτα εκτός από ελιές») έως 85% («Τεχνουργήματα από χάλυβα»].
- 5 sectors have experienced a statistically significant increase in exports (“aluminum”, “machines”, “fruits”, “vegetables”, “pharmaceuticals”). The increase ranged from 10% (“pharmaceuticals”) to 37% (“aluminum”). A possible interpretation of this finding is that the exporters of these products have been able to implement duties avoidance strategies or had the flexibility to absorb their consequences.
- 4 branches (“drinks”, “aviation”, “steel”, “materials”) did not show statistically significant change.
This heterogeneous image was also confirmed by the analysis at the business level. A remarkable case is the aluminum industry, in which businesses have achieved significant increases in exports, which indicates potential advantages specifically for the sector.
Recommendations for export trade and export credit funding policies
Although the overall impact of US duties for the 2018-2019 period in Greek exports shows that it was limited, the fact that there were several sectors that were negatively affected, highlights the need to identify and support targeted export sectors that are more vulnerable.
In this context, the study urges exports to new international markets, but stresses that it entails costs. Therefore, “a policy tool should be the design and implementation of export funding systems based on cash flow to help businesses that do not have internal liquidity or functional flexibility to quickly cope with commercial disorders.”
The banking sector is called upon to play a crucial role in this direction, as the researchers of the State Budget Office emphasize in Parliament, “providing the appropriate financial instruments that help businesses maintain liquidity and stability during the adjustment phase. At the same time, export grants and public export guarantees can further lighten the weight. ” That is why it emphasizes the need to strengthen the role of the Hellenic Export Credit Society SA. (Former Export Credit Insurance Agency) on the provision of financial subscription, credit insurance and guarantees to promote the internationalization of the Greek economy and to enhance the resilience of exporters to external shocks.
Finally, it is also proposed to also consider temporary measures to relieve the exporters, such as non -wage costs or energy reductions, with the aim of directing them, maintaining employment and operational continuity, as well as implement training initiatives to enhance labor skills. “Targeted incentives, including subsidies or tax exemptions, can additionally contribute to the compensation of increased costs associated with duties and maintaining prices without burdening consumers,” notes the work of the State Budget Office.