The international community receives controversial messages from political leaders USA and European Union (EU) in relation to the implementation of the July 27 agreement on duties, stressing that the trade war is anything but past.
The “festive” leaks of Brussels in Reuters, through European officials, to finalize its details agreement Between Ursula von der Laienne and Donald Trump came a little later to “empty” them by the US president who reminded the EU that their levels of dictatorial It’s just one part of the agreement.
There are no 15% duties without ‘falling money’ in the US
The other part, the implementation of which the US leader is inextricably linked to the issue of duties, is to comply with European investment commitments in the US economy and a rapid increase in US LNG markets. Without satisfying these parameters, the US president warned, instead of a 15%uniform rate on imports of European products, 35%will be imposed, while the duty will gradually reach 250%in pharmaceutical preparations!
In practice, this means that if EU countries do not invest $ 600 billion in US infrastructure, and if they do not spend $ 750 billion on US energy products by 2028, then the US president will act his threats, shaking the EU plans and changing the air.
Whether these goals in Europe seem feasible, or not, ($ 750 billion in LNG is more than twice the total of European energy imports in 2024), it is certain that the US president has in every way to “force” the US partners to reduce the US. And the first indications show that it succeeds, as June figures show that the total US deficit sliding by 16%to $ 60.2 billion.
In addition, it should not be forgotten that, unofficially, under the US and EU agreement, it is “implied” (beyond $ 600+750 billion) and the increase in US defense systems markets to satisfy the new NATO Member States target.
Combined, the above new “obligations” of European countries (including Greece) towards the US lead to mathematical precision to a devastating deterioration of the current account, while especially for our country, the increase in imports of American LNG means a rise in total energy costs.
With a look at Russia
Nevertheless, trade between the US and the EU will not depend solely on the US and the EU.
In particular, as the US president has his attention to Russia, with a deadline for a solution to the conflict in Ukraine on August 8 and the tension in the last 24 hours has hit “red”.
Specifically, Donald Trump intensifies the pressure on Russia and its basic income (energy exports) by threatening “secondary” sanctions and tooling the “weapon” of duties against its commercial partners. Brazil have been targeted (50%), China (30%) and India (25%), with the last one just yesterday Again target of the US president if he does not stop buying Russian oil.
It should be noted that although not sufficiently emphasized, the Trump threats to Russia’s trade partners are indirectly concerned. Despite the differentiation of energy supplies after the war in Ukraine, the EU continued to buy large quantities from Russia. In 2024, the total imports of fossil fuel from Russia amounted to 22 billion euros. An amount, of course, that the US president aspires to reset with the implementation of EU energy commitments.
However, Donald Trump’s threats to Russia’s commercial partners (Brazil, China, India) do not seem to take place, with a new, acute, trade war phase to be a fact. Duties of 25% and 50% are equivalent to an embargo and increasing pressure in Brussels as Donald Trump has a bargaining in a negotiating point of view, gaining a “upper hand”.
In addition, commercial flows of cheap products from these countries are expected to be redirected to the EU, pushing the margins of profit and competitiveness of European businesses especially in sectors such as food, aluminum, steel, sugar and agricultural industry.
In the background comes China
In a similar context, the case of China is included. The 30% duties in Chinese exports expires in October, leaving open the possibility of further increasing. It is a given that Donald Trump attaches great importance to China, and developments between the two countries will determine many worldwide.
And in this case, a further escalation will lead to the redirect of Chinese products to the Old Epirus, affecting European producers, from garments and retail goods, to technology products, electronics and vehicles.
In addition, an exacerbation of the conflict between the two superpowers is given that it will intensify Washington’s pressures on Brussels to align with American politics and to impose restrictions on Chinese imports, in the name of “just” competitiveness, at the time of the EU. German) have a strong presence and dependence on the Chinese market.
Possible escalation can affect inflows of basic intermediate products and raw materials that the EU supplies from China, such as rare land, photovoltaic panels, electric components and medium -class semiconductors, increasing the cost of production in Europe and delaying green projects.