Weather: Long -term prognosis for temperature in August – the alarming prediction of Kostas Lagouvard

While July surprises us with intense temperature alternations – from days heatwave Until unexpectedly cool intervals – interest is now focused on August. According to the long -term prognosis published by meteorologist Costas Lagouvardos on his facebook page, this year’s August is expected to be warmer than normal.

In particular, as he himself points out, 96% of available models indicate that average temperature in the country will range above normal levels. Chances are as follows:

• Positive deviation between 0 and 1 ° C: 35%

• Deviation 1 to 2 ° C: 38%

• Rise above 2 ° C: 23%

OR Average divergence value from normal temperatures of 400 different predictions of scenarios touches the +1,34°Celement that enhances the estimate for a hot August.

‘Keeping the obsession of the prognostic elements for a marathon of heat’

At the same wavelength is George Tsatrafyllias. As he typically wrote in his new post, “The obsession with prognosis for a marathon” is maintained.

Specifically, the meteorologist on the prolonged heat, which will begin on Sunday, July 13 and will last until July 25, says that “the latest forecasts show that mercury will find 6-8 degrees above normal levels for several days”.

His post is accompanied by a sketch of Arka. The “protagonist” is the angry July, who addresses their audience if they were missing the rains after the prolonged heatwave.

Warmer tension at European level

At a pan -European level, the trend is similar. The highest deviations from normal temperatures are provided:

• In Central Europe and the Balkanswith a possible increase of above +2 ° C.

• In the Mediterraneanmainly in the western sections (Iberian, southern France), where heating is expected to be more intense, with a gradual reduction to the east (Greece, Cyprus, Eastern Mediterranean).

Prognosis is based on data eight different meteorological centers composing overall 400 scenariosoffering a reliable picture of long -term voltage For the time of August.

The necessary reservation

Despite the impressive elements, Costas Lagouvardo recalls that Long -term forecasts always have uncertainty. Their main role is to capture the trend and not the provision of expensive temperatures for specific days or areas.

‘Local and daily variations can diverge significantly from the average price of the month’, The experienced meteorologist emphasizes.

In short, August appears warm, perhaps demanding, especially if the chances of rising more than 2 degrees Celsius are confirmed. However, the final impressions will be recorded – as usual – by the sky itself.

The forecast of Meteo

Warmo than is usually expected to be August in Greece and in Southeast Europe in general, according to meteo.grwhich cites the long -term forecasts issued in July.

According to 96% of the scenarios available, the average temperature August will be higher than normal levels for the season (reference period: 1993-2016).

Specifically, the probability of positive deviations between 0 and 1 ° C, between 1 and 2 ° C and above 2 ° C is 35%, 38% and 23% respectively. The chances of negative deviations between 0 and 1 ° C are 4%. The average price of 400 scenarios is +1.34 ° C.

As far as the European continent is concerned, positive deviations are expected throughout Europe, with the highest prices being located in Central Europe and the Balkans where they exceed +2 ° C. In the Mediterranean, the most intense positive deviations are expected to the west and reduced to the east.

This prognosis is based on a total of 400 possible scenarios from the following 8 prognosis centers: ECMWF (Europe), UKMO (United Kingdom), Meteo-France (France), JMA (Japan), NCEP (USA), DWD (Germany), CMCC (Italy) and Bom (Australia) Climate Change Service of the European Commission.

It is emphasized by meteo.gr that long -term forecasts are characterized by great uncertainty and aim to assess the trend in the monthly and seasonal evolution of the average weather conditions. In addition, temperature divergences on a daily and local basis due to the effect of any species of weather systems may vary significantly from the average divergence of one month in a wider area.