At the same time that the 5th International Report and Conference on Ukrainian rebuilding is to be held «Rebuild Ukraine» in November -aimed at the areas of construction and energy- A new study by the German Economic Institute IFO shows that only 3% of 6 million Ukrainian refugee He would return to his country if the war conflict was over.
Research, based on 2,543 Ukrainian refugees in 30 European countries, records with numbers a bitter reality: even if the war stopped tomorrow, The majority of the Ukrainians who abandoned their country would not return immediately, mainly because of fear, economic uncertainty and lack of confidence in the state.
It is not enough to end the war for the return of refugees
The results show that the territorial integrity and security guarantees are critical factors for the return of Ukrainian refugees while the financial outlook and the fight against corruption They also play an important role.
Specifically, younger respondents are particularly influenced by income opportunities, work prospects and possible accession to the EU. When all of these factors are negative, only 3% say they would return as opposed to an ideal scenario with security, stability and growth, the percentage ejects to 47%.
“The end of conflict is not enough. People need a reason to believe they can rebuild their lives there. “the authors of the research note.
The risk of a reconstruction without local workers
Ukraine currently has about 6 million refugees across Europe. The majority are women, children and young professionals, the most productive part of the population. If there is no mass return, the country is in danger of being in front of a demographic and development gap.
Particular concern is caused by the lower return intentions observed between younger people, a demographic group that is vital to Ukraine’s long -term rebuilding, Specifically in particular of the low fertility rates of the country.
The average subjective probability of return is 30.4% to all respondents, but is reduced to 26.3% between people aged 18 to 34. This team is particularly responsive to higher salaries, employment opportunities and EU accession. Therefore, attracting younger people in Ukraine will require targeted, developed policies that will provide clear economic and professional opportunities for this group, Along with a reliable prospect of joining the EU
The study warns that the ‘Rebuilding without people’ could delay the recovery for decades, even if there is international financial assistance.
Most respondents say they love their country and would like to come back “If Ukraine is safe, fair and with opportunities”. This means that Return depends not only from the end of the war, but by the quality of peace that will follow. The restoration of institutions, the fight against corruption and the opportunities of employment are considered ‘keys»For a real repatriation policy.
Ukrainian refugees in Europe
An additional obstacle is the fact that many refugees already have integrate professionally and socially into host countries. Child education, access to the labor market and relative safety work deterrently for an immediate return.
The study shows that The longer a refugee remains abroad, the more likely the chances of returning –A pattern that has been observed in other conflicts, from Syria to the Balkans.
Researchers conclude that, in order to have a mass return, rebuilding must be social, not only material. Investing in security, jobs, training and transparency can persuade the Ukrainians to turn around and not remain a permanent part of the European diaspora.