Ukrainian blows to Russian refineries affect the heart of Putin’s economy

In the past few weeks, the Ukraine has targeted refineries and oil export terminals at Russia. These blows interrupted production, overturned exports and caused gasoline deficiencies in some areas. They come at a time when the Russian army intensifies its pressure on the front and bombers Ukraine’s energy facilities.

Analysts estimate that these attacks are a strategic answer: they show that Ukraine is still being able to hurt Russia at the heart of its economy as the United States is trying to start negotiations with Vladimir Putin. According to Reuters, ten affected refineries lost about 17% of their capacity, ie 1.1 million barrels daily.

Fuel deficiencies and indignation of residents

These blows come in an extremely difficult time for Russia, as internal fuel demand reaches its seasonal climax due to tourism and agricultural activity. In many areas, from Crimea to the Far East, queues were formed at the gas stations. In Sevastopol, Svetlana Bazanova said: “We will endure, but this is a big blow to our family budget, really felt.”

In the port of Vladivostok, a Reuters journalist observed huge shortcomings related to shortcomings. Local authorities have said that this crisis is deteriorating by the seasonal influx of tourists.

A vital sector under pressure

Russia draws about a quarter of its public revenue from oil and gas exports. This revenue partially fund the historic increase in military spending by 25% this year, at levels that had not been recorded since the Cold War. Despite the western sanctions and the need to sell oil at lower prices, Moscow maintained a huge reinforcement production, according to US officials.

However, these difficulties highlight the vulnerability of a critical area. “The affected refineries lost only some of their capacity, but this can already cause a problem in the internal supply,” says Sergei Vakulenko, an analyst at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Targeed blows to Russia’s oil giants

In the last month, Ukraine has hit large facilities: Lukoil in Volgograd, Rosneft in Rryzan, as well as bands in Rostov, Samaras, Saratov and Krasnodar. In novosachsk, a refinery is still burning after a drone attack.

Fire in Unecha oil pumping station in RussiaFire in Unecha oil pumping station in Russia
Fire at Unecha Oil Pumping Station in Russia / YouTube @Magyarbirds via Reuters

Other strategic infrastructures were also hit, such as the Druzhba oil pipeline and Novatek’s Uast-Luga terminal. These blows show that Kiev can reach energy facilities far away from the front.

A war of economic deterioration

The war in Ukraine has evolved into a deterioration battle, with drones and rockets deep in the inland. Ukraine is trying to weaken the Russian economy, while Moscow is trying to exhaust Kiev’s energy resistance.

Although Russia has so far resisted sanctions, growth slows down and concern in the Kremlin is increasing. Ukraine’s ability to continue these blows could play an important role in future negotiations and in the very perception of the balance of power.

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