A match for tomato with the Mexico will raise prices in USA almost by 10%
US consumers may soon pay more for fresh tomatoes, as a decades -long deal with Mexico expires in less than a week if there is no last minute agreement or extension.
Tomato importer in US Naturesweet Ltd. He told his clients last week that he would have to raise prices by almost 10% if the deal expires, CEO Rodolfo Spielmann said in an interview on Tuesday (8.7.2025).
This could lead to increased costs across the country, given NatureSweet’s position as the largest tomato distributor in the US. Its best-sellers, including Cherubs grape tomatoes, can be found in stores such as Walmart Inc., Kroger Co. And Albertsons COS according to Bloomberg sources.
The US Department of Commerce announced in April that it is ending a long -term agreement with the country’s southern neighbor on tomatoes on July 14, which will launch a 17% levy on the fruits imported from Mexico. As it is less than a week before the July midfielder, it is unlikely to reach an agreement, although various groups are pushing for extension to save more time for negotiations, according to public documents.
The Ministry of Commerce, Walmart, Kroger and Albertsons did not immediately respond to a commentary request.
The end of the agreement will be a blow to US companies that cultivate tomatoes in Mexico and import them to the US, where they dominate the market. About 72% of US fresh tomatoes were introduced in 2024 and about 90% of them came from Mexico, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Welcome
Some tomato growers in the US have greeted the end of the agreement, although many agricultural economists do not expect that they will be able to offset the expected deceleration of Tomatoes coming from Mexico. The US Department of Agriculture estimated in June that Mexico’s Tomato exports would be reduced by 5% this year in response to new contributions.
“It is likely that the price of tomato will increase in the short term,” US Minister of Agriculture Brooke Rollins told reporters last week. In the long run, “ensuring that our international partners are fair and follow the rules and fulfilling their obligations is of the utmost importance,” she said.
Tomato growers in Florida and in some other states have encouraged the government to terminate the agreement with Mexico, arguing that the prices of imports from the southern US neighbor are unjustifiably low. The original agreement, signed in 1996 and renegotiated periodically, suspended a Mexican prices survey and concluded an agreement: Mexican producers agreed to set a minimum price for their tomatoes and submit to additional inspections.
“It didn’t work,” said Robert Guenher, executive vice -president of Florida Tomato Exchange, who represents many producers in Florida and in some other states. In the last 30 years, “what has been observed is a constant decline in the market share of American tomatoes,” he said.
US producers supplied about 80% of the US market when the deal was first signed and have since seen the rate decreased to about 30%, Guenther said.
Growing sweet spot
However, Georgia economists have said that Mexico has gained a greater share of the US market because its temperate climate and greenhouse network are suitable for tomato cultivation, especially cherry varieties, grapes and hereditary varieties. Low labor costs also help maintain prices at low levels.
“It is not due to a coordinated attempt by Mexican growers to understand market share and displace Florida. They simply provide better products on the market, “said Matt Mandel, Vice President of Sunfed Produce in Arizona, who imports 95% of Mexico’s products.
Mandel said Sunfed should also adjust prices to its tomatoes if the deal expires this month.
“It will increase prices, dots and dash,” he said. “We work with a lot of, very small profit margins and there is absolutely no way to absorb 17%.”
Guenher said he does not expect a dramatic reduction in imports or raising prices. American growers in Florida and elsewhere have room to expand their production, he said.
Lost jobs
The reduction in tomato imports is likely to have additional impacts by eliminating jobs associated with this product pipeline, said Andrew Muhammad, a professor of agricultural policy at the Agriculture Institute of the University of Tennessee.
“In addition to the lost imports, some economic activity will be lost,” he said. “Services related to imports also pay Americans.”
The import and marketing of fresh tomatoes from Mexico supports about 47,000 full -time and part -time jobs in the US, according to April analysis by Texas A&M University.
Elected officials from Arizona and Texas, including Texas Greg Abbott, have encouraged the government to leave the agreement in force, while Florida legislators have welcomed efforts to end it.