No one saves from his trade war USA and China neither of course and the luxury – As expensive bags and watches – As duties threaten to condemn the industry and extend the recession of demand in 2025.
USA and China The two main driving forces of global demand in luxury species continue to tape duties in a commercial bar de Fer that threatens to shake consumer confidence in the two largest economies on the planet. Analysts are already revising their forecasts for the industry.
US tariffs on Chinese products have been launched to 145%, while Beijing responded with 125% to its own products imported by the US. The majority of luxury products is produced in France and Italy While high quality watches are manufactured in Switzerland.
The US has imposed 10% duties on all products from all three countries, after recalling the highest rates it initially imposes.
Bernstein expects 2% reductions for 2025 in luxury market revenue – reversing previous 5% growth estimate – citing the growing financial uncertainty and the increased chances world recession. “Our main assessment is that any recovery in the industry is postponed to 2026,” a banker told the banker. Financial Times.
Although duties – at this stage – remain relatively manageable for luxury companies, since the brands have the luxury of depriving part of the cost, there is also the factor psychology And this is what affects consumers and their purchasing power. Simply put, economic uncertainty is the absolute poison for the consumer climate.
As Chanel’s Bruno Pavruno Pavruno commented on FT: “If you are watching what’s going on on the stock market, you can pretty much predict the move in your boutiks.”
On the other hand, Hermes with its mythical Birkin bags is expected to continue its excellent performance, as Barclays analysts, its sales. will rise by 8% the first trimester, contrary to Gucciwhere a 25% drop in sales in the same quarter is forecast.