As her most important challenge Greek economy and indirectly of the state budget, analysts at Greek banks characterize its next EU budget EUfor the period 2028 – 2034, according to valid information from newsit.gr.
And this is because not only the most likely scenario already foresees a reduction of its available funds for EU member countries, especially in terms of “cohesion” and “common agricultural policy” (which will hurt the Greek economy), but also these funds may be even lower in the event of Ukraine joining the “European family”, as huge funds will be required for its integration after the disasters it has suffered from the war.
The threatened double community “cutter” of community grants -and- to Greece, would create another “financial gap” in the Greek economy (beyond what is expected from the end of the Recovery Fund after the middle of next year) but it would create new issues for Greek banks.
Economic analysts contacted by newsit.gr interpret the concern of Greek banks about the upcoming…cut-down NSRF from the point of view that fewer community resources mean:
- Less growth and, therefore, risk for reddening loans
- Fewer or lower new loans (and thus less credit expansion) to businesses that could join co-financed programs.
“Hundreds of billions of dollars” are needed for Ukraine
On the occasion of the 5th conference on the reconstruction of Ukraine (November 13-14, 2025), the president of the country, Volodymyr Zelensky, stated that already “the recovery of Ukraine is becoming the biggest economic project in Europe of our time”as well “already estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars”.
Although the possibility of Ukraine joining the EU will be put on the table if a sustainable peace is formed, it is already troubling banking circles in Greece, as another “cutter” of community grants to Athens, after 2028, especially as Zelensky declared last Tuesday, November 4 that he would like to see Ukraine join the European Union by 2030!
This would mean that two years after the start of the new programming period, i.e. in 2030, the EU budget would have to be completely revised in order to support Ukraine…
Of course, 2030 is still a long way off and the next two years (2026 – 2027) of tough negotiations within the EU on the “mix” of the new Multiannual Financial Framework (i.e. new Community budget, new NSRF) come first.
These negotiations will take place in conditions of a rapid slide of the European economy towards recession, especially from 2026, as it is then expected that the full effects of Trump’s tariff policy will be seen.
Even more uncertain absorption of the Recovery Fund
At the same time, when the Greek banks are looking with horror at the new NSRF, which has been cut to pieces, Commission pushes for all remaining Recovery Fund to be allocated to Defense until August 2026, Greece, according to sources of newsit.gr in Brussels, does not seem to have received the relevant “message”.
This at least can be seen for example -and- from the not much attention paid by the Greek government -according to diplomatic sources of newsit.gr – to the Defense Industry Forum organized by NATO (in the presence of Secretary General Mark Rutte) in Bucharest on November 5-6, 2025.