For decades, the spectrum of overcrowding has dominated the discussions. Today the opposite happens: concern is caused by birthplace. According to the UN, the world population It will reach the ceiling of $ 10.3 billion in 2084 before it begins to decline, the Economist notes.
However, these forecasts are considered too optimistic of many experts. If the current trend continues for a decade, the climax will come from 2065 at 9.6 billion before it falls to 8.9 billion in 2100. In some metropolises, fertility is already under one child per woman, such as in Bogota (0.91), even lower than even 0.
Multiple concerns
Fewer residents mean less workforce, less innovation and increased pressure on public finances. The megagus may endure, but many small centers may be deserted. Demographic shrinkage also feeds on fears of identity, with populists denouncing a “decline of their culture” and promoting mass policies in favor of birth.
However, it reminds the Economist, even countries such as Hungary, which spends 6% of its GDP to boost births, have failed to reverse the trend.
Reasons for optimism
The analysis stresses that population decline does not necessarily mean poverty. Japan, for example, has been shrinking demographically for two decades, but living levels have increased significantly.
Progress in longevity and artificial intelligence can also offset part of the lack of workforce. In 2022, a seventy had the same cognitive abilities as a fifty in 2000 – a valuable profit for the economy and society.
A world called to adapt
By the end of the century, the demographic map will be radically remodeled: China may lose more than half its population, Africa will have a more central role, while Europe and the United States will need to balance between aging and immigration.
But the Economist concludes, these changes, no matter how destabilizing they seem, they are not unprecedented in history. The challenge will be to adapt social systems, pensions and political balances – without panic.