Three weeks after US president Donald Trump It declared essentially trade war with the whole world with announcement barrels dictatorialnew financial forecasts and surveys will highlight the first effects.
A few blocks away from the White House, the International Monetary Fund is expected to reduce its prospects for economic growth in new forecasts published on Tuesday (21.04.2025), in the shadow of the first impacts of duties.
The next day, the Procurement Managers (PMI) indicators from Japan to Europe and the US will offer the first coordinated look at the activity of manufacturing and services since April 2, the Trump world duties – which have now been partly suspended. Business surveys from the economies are also on the agenda.
According to Bloomberg, the combined image is going to offer the finance ministers and central bankers who gather in Washington the opportunity to make the first damage to Trump’s attempt to redesign the world trade system.
“Our new growth forecasts will include remarkable reductions, but not a recession,” IMF Director General Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday. “We will also see increases in inflation forecasts for some countries. We will warn that prolonged high uncertainty increases the risk of stress in financial markets. “
These clouds that cover the global economy are unlikely to break down for a while. US Federal Bank President Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the US Central Bank is “in a position to expect more clearly” before examining monetary policy changes, while European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde could not say.
Meanwhile, Georgieva hopes that the next few days, which will also meet the heads of the G20 Financial Services could be tension in global trade relations.
USA and Canada
In the US, investors will watch for any additional worsening of the consumer climate and inflation expectations when the University of Michigan issued revised data on April on Friday. The duties, and the danger they have for both the economy and inflation, have been involved in surveying respondents in recent months.
On Wednesday, Fed’s “Beige Bible” will provide data on regional economic conditions and will give a taste of how much government policy and uncertainty affect business decisions.
Earlier in the same day, the government is expected to announce a marginal increase in new residence sales in March. With mortgage loans largely stuck over 6.5% since October, manufacturers are trying to motivate buyers from the sidelines. The details of residential resale will be issued on Thursday.
An exhibition on the orders of lasting March on the same day will help to provide indications of business demands.
Further north, the Canadian election campaign is entering its last week, with polls showing that Prime Minister Mark Carney liberals are preceded by about five points – which puts them a breath away from a majority government in the midst of an unstable US war.
A key architect of Canada’s response to US duties, trade negotiator Steve Verrel, is going to speak at a conference in Toronto. Retail data for February and a rough estimate for March will reveal whether Canadian consumers have limited their expenditure for a third consecutive month in the midst of commercial uncertainty.
Asia
In Asia, the week begins with the announcement of the basic interest rates from China on Monday while economists provide for a steady result. Recent evidence has shown that growth exceeded forecasts.
Also, on Monday, Indonesia publishes commercial data for March, which will be an index for the health of the country’s foreign sector prior to Trump’s duties, while the Philippines are likely to publish another surplus in the balance of payment for March.
On the same day, April PMI preliminary data on Australia, Japan and India will give an early picture of any impact on the process of manufacturing and services from the US -led trade war.
Malaysia and Singapore publish inflation data on Wednesday, while South Korea’s consumer confidence is also expected to publish data the day before the country publishes preliminary estimates of the gross domestic product of the first quarter.
On Friday, Japan reveals Tokyo’s ICC as well as sales of department stores, while Singapore will announce private housing prices for the first quarter and industrial production for March.
During the week, India and Thailand also announce the exchange reserves.
Europe
A holiday Monday in most of Europe and with central bankers gathering for IMF meetings, most of the attention will focus on the US. Many policy -making bodies are included in the diary, including the speech of the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday.
In the eurozone the main burden will be given to research reports. Consumer confidence in the area is published on Tuesday and the ECB publishes its research on the same day by professional analysts. Its wage detector expected on Wednesday indicates a slower increase in wages, Lagarde said last week after interest rates.
Investors may pay more attention to the PMI indicators that will also come out then, offering first glance at the activity of manufacturing and services since the US tariff attack in early April.
Germany’s closely monitored IFO research comes on Thursday, showing how the climate in businesses has reacted to commercial tensions and, in a more positive note, to the agreement on a federal coalition government. Similar indicators in France are published on Friday.
The UK PMI reports also come on Wednesday, as well as the latest public finances in March. Retail data is published on Friday.
The National Bank of Switzerland publishes the results of the first quarter on Thursday, and President Martin Schlegel addresses a speech at the annual General Assembly the following day.
Finally, the Russian Central Bank will announce its last monetary decision on Friday. The recent reduction in consumer prices is probably not enough to persuade policy -making managers to reduce the reference index from 21% record. Officials may sound a mild note, however, for a possible reduction in interest rates later this year.