Particularly upward was this week the course of the international honor of crude oil (before even Israel’s new attack erupts against Iran), as it was even up to $ 70 per barrel in the case of the Brent contract, from $ 65 initially.
At the heart of the rise of oil prices was the rumored (which was today verified) Israel’s imminent attack on Iran, aimed at its nuclear facilities. Negotiations between Tehran and Washington did not prosper to date and on Sunday (15.6.2025) planned to take place perhaps their last meeting that could lead to a diplomatic solution.
The United States has already announced that they are reducing their military presence in Iraq and “pulling” staff away from Iran to be ready for the possible conflict in the area. At the same time, they evacuated the families of military and political executives in the country.
Until yesterday, there was no effect on an impact on the production of Iraqi and the surrounding states, as by Thursday (12.6.25) the oils continued their activities normally.
However, Britain has issued a direction in its shipping for ships on the alert for all the time of the Ormuz and the Persian Gulf in general. Similarly, they asked them to report any abnormal incident they observe in the area.
Returning to oil, the prevailing image on the market is that we will not have an immediate prices return to the previous lows with the Israeli attack. It will not, that is to say, in oil, that we saw during last year’s bombings between Israel and Iran that were intense but short -lived.
The reason is that this time the Israeli business is expected to last up to a week. Iran is sure to respond, probably in waves and perhaps against US targets. Thus, uncertainty will last longer by affecting the oil market.
It should be noted that the fundamentals of supply and demand today in the argon cannot support permanent values of more than $ 70 per barrel. The market is well -equipped and logic says that after the conflict ending things will calm down again in the pricing.
Possible overthrow and consolidated high prices we will only see if things are shaken in the Middle East and emerge Immediate Contact Scenario with US Participation. Respectively, there is The fear that the Iranians are being extruded to do something extreme in the straits of Ormuz, passing a respectable fraction of world oil supplies.
Finally, it is worth adding that in addition to oil, it matters and Natural gas supply, as countries in the region such as Qatar produce huge quantities, which they export through the LNG sea route.