The young duties of the president Donald Trump They were officially in force today (07.08.2025), as he is moving on with an undiminished intensity in his attempt to remodel international trade, with consequences, however, for the whole world economy.
After months of chaotic threats and reversals, which brought a climate of uncertainty to the global economy, the highest duties for almost all US trade partners came into force shortly after midnight in New York. Donald Trump signed the directive a week ago, but had to give time to American customs and border protection to make the necessary changes to collect new contributions.
Overall, Trump’s actions will push the average US tariff rate to 15.2%, according to Bloomberg Economics estimates, well above 2.3% of last year and at the highest level since World War II.
Following a series of hectic negotiations, the European Union (EU), Japan and South Korea have accepted 15% duties to their products, including basic exports such as cars, which would otherwise be subject to 25% tax. In other countries, duties were simply imposed from 10% to much higher rates.
Some of the latest attempts by countries to achieve better agreements have failed. The Swiss president left Washington on Wednesday without achieving 39% duty reduction and Trump doubled the duties on Indian products to 50% in three weeks as a punishment for the purchase of Russian oil.
Negotiations on higher tariffs on products from three of the largest US partners, Mexico, Canada and China, are heading for a separate orbit. Trump has also promised to soon announce duties in critical sectors, such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
The coming months will test the forecasts of both Trump and his critics that the duty regime will cause a huge change in the US economy.
Trump has promised that the highest duties will reduce trade deficits and push companies to move their production back to the US. His critics say they could cause an uncontrolled increase in inflation and lack of products on the shelves.
None of them have happened yet, but recent financial data show that problems may arise with the implementation of duties.
Employment data in July showed the steepest -down revisions in increasing jobs in the US by the pandemic. US economic growth slowed down in the first half of the year, as consumers reduced their expenditure and companies adapted to changing commercial policy.
Unemployment remains low and prices have not increased, as companies have so far absorbed much of the cost. However, some experts argue that eventually consumers and businesses will eventually be burdened with costs.
“There are indications that more difficult times are coming. Many companies have accumulated stocks before the implementation of duties, “said Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute and former US trade deals. He argued that “prices are almost inevitable”, as it is unlikely that businesses will maintain lower profit margins in the long run.
Trump’s duties have triggered upheaval in the world economy since their first announcement and their subsequent suspension in April, triggering months of intense negotiations with trade partners. Uncertainty has caused business concerns about supply chain disorders and increased costs.
Most economies have now accepted that the highest duties will remain. Many have been committed to investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the US in order to calm Trump and secure deals for reduced contract
However, critical details of Trump’s plans remain to be settled. Discounts on customs duties for the EU, Japan and South Korea have not yet been coded, and until it is done, cars will face higher charges. The details of investment commitments and policy changes to market access to US products – which could help reduce trade deficits – have not yet been announced.
Analysts of top companies on Wall Street have warned their customers to prepare for a retreat. On Monday, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Evercore warned that the S&P 500 is expected to be short -term in the coming weeks and months. This warning comes amid increasing concerns about the US economy, after last week data showing inflation increased, as well as a slowdown in increased employment and consumer spending.
The cost of living was a decisive issue in last year’s elections, and polls reflect the frustration over Trump’s approach. A recent Fox News poll shows that 62% of voters disapprove of how Trump handles tariffs, while 58% are opposed to the bill on taxes and costs. In total, 55% are unhappy in the way they handle the economy.
There are also questions about the viability of Trump’s program, as the use of his extraordinary powers to impose tariffs on specific countries is challenged in the courts. Trump is based on more legally correct principles for imposing duties in specific sectors, such as cars and minerals.
“You see the government trying to present a picture according to which this duty cycle is over and you will have some certainty,” said Tim Meyer, a professor at the Duke University School of Law, who specializes in trade. But he added that “the ability to implement is under serious legal challenge”.
Trump insists that his moves will inaugurate a new golden age for the economy and has rejected data that does not match his narrative, dismissing the head of the statistical service that has published the latest employment data.
Trump has also boasted for increasing duties, implying that this can lead to tax refunds for some Americans. Data from the US Department of Finance shows that duties have increased to a record of $ 113 billion during nine months by June.
It is not clear whether it makes progress in another of the declared targets of the duty program: the restoration of production in America. He and his advisers argue that duties will boost the jobs in the process of manufacturing.
Brad Jensen, a professor at the McDonough School of McDonough at Georgetown University, said it is difficult to increase duties and jobs at the same time.
“Both cannot apply,” he said. If there is an increase in the domestic industry, “then we will not have duty revenue” because fewer goods will be imported.