“Tobacco” can become more than 1.5 billion euros on an annual basis from the income of Greek businesses and households (mainly from a reduction in private investment rather than consumption), if the threat is implemented Trump for duties 30% on US imports from the EU (ie Greece) from August 1, 2025.
This conclusion on the impact of Trump duties of 30% is pointed out on newsit.gr, taking into account the latest report by the Bank of Greece (Monetary Policy, June 2025), which includes estimates of the impact of Trump duties on the Greek economy.
These estimates vary depending on the percentage of duties to be imposed. In the case of duties in the existing (from 9 April 2025) 10%, which is characterized by the BoG as a “mild” scenario, Greek GDP will lose 0.3%.
If duties rise to 20%, which the BoG says as a “unfavorable scenario”, the impact on Greek GDP will reach 0.5%.
It is reasonable, therefore, that 30% duties will remove 0.7% -0.8% from Greek GDP, the same sources on newsit.gr say.
A promotion of this percentage in our country’s GDP “shows” losses of more than € 1.5 billion annually.
The direct and indirect impact on trade
According to the BoG, imposing US duties, reflecting the revision of their commercial policy, not only affects their immediate trade partners, but also has wider consequences for the global economy. For Greece, the immediate impact of duties are estimated to be limited, but the potential indirect implications for the slowdown in the rise in international trade, the global economy and the available income are greater.
OR direct impact The imposition of duties on the value of imports to the US is expected to be limited, due to the small share of the total exports directed to the US and on the other hand, almost 1/4 of Greek exports from tariffs.
In addition, the imposition of increased fees on ships made in China is expected to have a slight negative impact on the Greek -owned fleet and thus on maritime transport.
The indirect effects The duties may be larger and linked to the following factors:
Loss of competitiveness due to deterioration of relevant values of goods
The imposition of higher duties in the EU compared to other countries that produce respectively – competitive – products can contribute to the deterioration of the relative prices of Greek products in the US market.
Consequently, lower duties are gaining a comparative advantage over EU countries. The above effect is further enhanced by the recent US dollar appreciation over the US dollar.
Slowing down the rise rate of global economy and international trade
Although Greece’s exports to the US account for about 1% of GDP, for eurozone and EU-27 countries this figure is higher (about 3%). The negative impact on the disposable income of these commercial partners in Greece, which absorb more than 50% of Greek exports, will adversely affect the exports of the country’s goods. In addition, the reduction in the volume of international trade will negatively affect the demand for maritime transport and related receipts in the country’s balance of services.
Increase competition in existing markets
Imposing US duties can contribute to the diversion of US freight flows to other markets. To the extent that Greek goods are competitive with them (eg metal products and machinery), prices competition in these markets where Greek goods are already present can be intensified.
Reduction of available income in the EU and the US
A reduction in the available income in the EU, from which it comes more than 55% of Greece’s travel receipts, is likely to limit travelers’ spending in our country. A similar impact can also be noted for travelers from the US.
In particular, in 2024 travelers from the US amounted to 1.55 million or 3.8% of total arrivals (compared to 3.9% in 2023), while US revenue amounted to € 1.6 billion or 7.3% of total receipts (compared to 6.7% in 2023).
In addition, the spending per night by US travelers had the largest increase among the main countries of origin of travelers, and their average spending per trip increased.