Upward – but at mild -rhythms – the price of oilafter the blows that the USA Against Iran last weekend (21-22 June 2025).
Specifically, the price of oil records almost 1.6%, reaching $ 75 a barrel. The relatively mild rise in oil price is due to the fact that traders was expecting Iran’s response to the US, which has not happened for the time being.
At the same time, upward trends records the dollar. A Bloomberg indicator for the dollar rose 0.2%. Contracts for the S&P 500 fell about 0.3% and an index of Asian shares fell to the lower level since the beginning of June. Government bond yields have risen.
Oil remained at the center of interest, as any circulation disorder through the strait of the Ormuz, an important artery for global crude and gas, has raised the range of rising energy prices. While Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the country maintains all the options to react, there has not yet been evidence of real disorder in natural oil flows.
“This kind of uncertainty quickly becomes the new normal for markets, so I expect to see a relative sense of calm, unless we see tensions continue to grow, something that, in order to be clear, has the ability to do“, Said Josh Gilbert, a market analyst at Etoro in Sydney. “Even without a direct impact, the mixture of oil instability and renewed uncertainty is likely to be enough to keep the mood for a sluggish risk.”
The market reaction was generally sluggish after Israel’s initial attack this month. Even after the fall of the last two weeks, the S&P 500 is only about 3% below the historic high of February. The dollar has climbed just over 1% since it has reached three years at the beginning of the month.
Whether this will keep depends heavily on Iran’s next move, according to some market observers.
“It is very likely that Iran will counterattack in the United States in some way,” said Ben Zala, a senior international lecturer at Melbourne University in Monash. “The market in this respect will be very, very reactive to military events in the region – in shares, bonds, coins – because we simply do not know the exact way it will evolve.”
If the oil flows through the narrow straps were half reduced for one month and remained by 10% lower for another 11 months, the Brent would launch up to $ 110 a barrel, According to Goldman Sachs Group.
Iran has vowed to impose “eternal consequences” for bombing. In the meantime, Israel continued its attacks, targeting military facilities in Tehran and western Iran.
“If retaliation cycle continues, increased US budget spending could lead to increased yields on state bonds and US stock prices,” Ataru Okumura, a senior strategic interest rate analyst of SMBC Nikko Se. During the conflict in Iraq in 2003 and the Gulf War in 1991, “the US shares scored a rally as the effect of stimulating mass martial spending became apparent or expected to become apparent.”
The fall may be limited because some market participants are preparing for a deterioration of the conflict. The MSci All Country World Index has fell 1.5% of Israel’s attack on Iran on June 13. Capital administrators have reduced their shares, shares are no longer over -worn out and the demand for ratings have increased, which means that a deep sale is less likely at these levels.
Meanwhile, the credit margins of high -credit dollars’ Asian bonds have been expanded more in five weeks. On the shares front, maritime shares, such as Ningbo Marine and Nanjing Tanker, proceeded because of the speculation that tanker fare prices may increase after US air strikes. Asian defense shares increased, while airline shares declined due to higher oil prices.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing’s shares retreated after the Wall Street Journal said US Department of Commerce officials told top chip companies that it wants to recall the exemptions they used to access US technology in China. Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc. They also declined.
Elsewhere, the president of the Federal Bank of San Francisco, Mary Daly, said on Sunday that he considers the attitude of the Central Bank’s monetary policy “in a good spot” at present, with the risks to its orders to employ and priced prices in the US. Daly said she sees the central bank’s interest rates in the autumn, later by Commander Christopher Waller, who said on Friday that he has been seeing a move in July.
Traders will analyze the data of economic activity in Europe and the US later on Monday to assess whether the US trade war has limited the production of factories ahead of the July 9th deadline. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is also expected to speak.