A impassable situation is described by Ricardo in terms of energy course of our country as a result of excessive installation photovoltaic compared to other technologies.
In a report by Ricardo published this week, the company warns that there is today a delay in the development of energy storage and offshore winds that could balance our energy mix dominated by the presence of photovoltaics.
Specifically, offshore winds are projected to be implemented in 2034, that is, with a few years delay in relation to what the national plan for energy and climate (ESEC) provides.
In the scenario processed by Ricardo, there is an overrun of the photovoltaic target, which will reach 37% of power generation in 2030. On the other hand, storage will be 54% lower than the target due to delays observed in project development.
The results on the RES market will be particularly noticeable. First of all, the wholesale price of electricity will not retreat as provided by the ESEC. Also, photovoltaic investors will see their revenue to decline by 50%, with returns almost annihilated and investment becoming unprofitable. Photovoltaic production cuts will increase from 5% of the ESEK central scenario to 10-18% by 2030.
In such a future, wins will be the winds that will see their own returns grow, as well as the batteries that will benefit from the highest wholesale prices through the daily arbitrage.
In conclusion, Ricardo estimates that the energy transition to Greece is today at a crucial crossroads. Although the ESEC is a good road map, real trends and investment diverges and can undermine its success. By extension, interventions are required by the State.