Pessimists appear analysts regarding whether the agreement of the USA with China Regarding the duties, at the meeting of the two sides in Switzerland.
According to Politico US President Donald Trump may have stated Friday (09/05/2025) that his exorbitant duties in China may soon be starting to decline. This does not mean that the two countries are close to agreement.
Trump’s obvious willingness to reduce US duties in China – currently up to 145% – to 80% is coming As Finance Minister Scott Bessed met with Chinese officials in Geneva on Saturday and possibly on Sunday.
But This concession or a similar step to the percentage of dutieswould do little to quickly rejuvenate trade between the two countriesas imports of Chinese products in the US ports are steadily collapsing.
Close observers of China say that They do not expect Chinese Vice -President of the He Lifeng government, the person who has taken over the conversations in Switzerland, to immediately make concessions. And China It is not likely to be in a hurry to any agreementas he speculates what the Trump government finally wants How can she defend her own interests.
“He is probably mainly in a state of listening and will convey everything to President XI,” said Christopher Adams, a former Chinese senior coordinator at the Treasury. “I guess they have thought of various options and routes, but I don’t think it has much power to make decisions on the table.”
The president’s allies they acknowledge that Trump’s proposal that can reduce duties is largely symbolicbut they argued that they still be a significant first step toward a broader expansion in trade war Among the two largest economies in the world.
“It’s not the practical result. This is the demonstration of progress, “said one person who knows the discussions. “Markets can react to the smell of progress with China’s trade.”
Any progress will not be fast enough
However, business owners, legislators and economists are already warning that, even if any progress is made this weekend, it will not be fast enough to avoid serious economic pain.
«A 65% duties reduction sounds generous until you realize that it is still a wall, not a gateway“, Said a former Trump government official, who was given anonymity to honestly discuss expectations.
The two -way trade between the US and China amounted to $ 582.4 billion in 2024according to the office of the US Commercial Representative, including of $ 439.9 billion in Chinese imports in the US.
Trump’s escalating duties in Chinese productshave virtually stopped missions from China in recent weekspushing companies that sell toys, home items, tools and clothes to raise prices and causing a headache to American manufacturers.
Small businesses worried that they are forced to close And big retailers have warned that the more duties remain in force, consumers could see fewer products by the end of summer.
Even if duties are diminished, businesses have already been damaged. Retailers usually spend this year of the year by buying stocks from school sales in late summer – Delaying decisions as companies evaluate whether they will be able to execute orders in the midst of commercial pause.
Economists expect the highest prices hit until June or early July, as stocks that businesses have been able to store before duties begin to dilute.
Indeed, the debate this weekend is just a trumpet in a negotiation that is expected to take months, if not years, to bear fruit.
“Trump is convinced that our Chinese need more than we are. And I think the Chinese are equally convinced that we need them more than they are, “said William Reinsch, a former US senior US official and senior consultant at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “This is not a view that leads you to a solution very quickly.”
This makes the meeting of this weekend more an exchange of positions that can prepare more focused future negotiations.
“See much more in terms of confidence building measures taken early in a difficult deal to signal, diplomatically and politically, that there is going to be gone and receiving and that there can be a real negotiation,” said Emily Kilcrease, a former US. Treasury by former President Joe Biden.
China has remained persistent that it is willing to wait for Trump, believing that it would be able to withstand any economic duties from the US duties than the US, where consumers are already frustrated by high inflation after Covid-19 pandemic and consumer.
“Pressure or coercion of China in any way just doesn’t work,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lynn Jian told reporters earlier this week. “We will determine our legitimate interests decisively and defend international justice and impartiality.”
At the same time, Beijing has implied that it is interested in reaching an agreement that could provide relief, offering earlier exceptions from skyscrapers retaliation for basic US imports, including microchips, pharmaceuticals and engines.
“This has an impact on China,” said Everett Aisenstat, Deputy Director of the National Economic Council on the first Trump government. “They are willing to move, especially if what they are asked is to buy American goods and services.”
The White House is willing to claim any progress in talks, in the context of its wider attempt to reassure consumers and to calm the unstable financial markets upset by the US trade policy and the multiple rounds of new dracons.