The world markets oil It is on track for a surplus record next year, as demand growth slows down and supplies are increasing, according to the international energy organization (IEA).
Petroleum stocks will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels a day, even exceeding the average accumulation during the 2020 pandemic, according to IEA monthly report data. The global oil demand this year and the following year is increasing at a rate of less than half of the rate observed in 2023.
At the same time, the offer increases rapidly. The OPEC+Alliance, led by Saudi Arabia, has accelerated the restart of interruption, while IEA has slightly enhanced forecasts for production outside the group of states in 2026, led by America.
“Balances in the oil market are increasingly expanded, as the foreseen supply far exceeds demand by the end of the year and 2026,” the Paris -based organization said. “It is clear that something will have to change to balance the market.”
Crude oil prices have declined by about 12% this year, negotiating close to $ 66 a barrel in London, as the increase in bid by both OPEC+ and its competitors coincides with the growing concern that US President Donald’s trade war will affect.
The decline in prices offers some relief to consumers after years of inflation and is a victory for Trump, who is pushing for lower fuel costs, but is a financial threat to companies and oil -producing countries.
High stocks
Petroleum markets are currently drawing some support from strong summer demand for vehicles, but IEA data suggest that they are already ending in over -supply. World oil reserves have reached the highest level of the last 46 months in June. New sanctions against Russia or Iran could still change the picture, the organization added.
On a quarterly basis, the surplus observed in 2020 will remain the largest ever recorded, with a top of 7 million barrels a day in the second quarter of the same year, as traffic restriction measures limited transport and economic activity. This over -supply was subsequently reduced thanks to the mass cuts of OPEC+.
Global oil consumption will increase by only 680,000 barrels a day this year, the lowest since 2019, amid frustrating demand in China, India and Brazil. According to the report, it will increase by 700,000 barrels a day in 2026.
IEA has predicted that global oil demand will stop growing by the end of the decade, as countries will abandon fossil fuels and switch to electric vehicles.
The Agency increased forecasts to increase off -OPEC+ 2026 bids by 100,000 barrels a day to 1 million a day, led again by the US, Guiana, Canada and Brazil. As the Organization of Petroleum producers sees its competitors expand, the cartel and its partners are moving to regain their share of global oil sales.
Saudi Arabia has guided the team to accelerate the revival of interrupted production in recent months, and earlier in August, it has ratified another increase for September, which will complete the re -launch of a 2.2 million barrel.
It is not clear whether the alliance will continue to seek market share. OPEC+ has stated that its next move is completely uncertain and could be either a further increase, a pause, or even a reversal of recent production increases.
The production of the 22 -country group declined last month, as Saudi Arabia reduced its increase in June during the conflict between Israel and Iran, according to the IEA report.
In the overall retreat, there were still some profits, with the United Arab Emirates increasing their production to 3.5 million barrels a day – a new high that is significantly above OPEC+.