Slightly reduced the predictions of the OPEC for demand oil for 2025, and as this adjustment explains, “given the recent US US duties”.
More specifically, OPEC is now expecting that global demand in the oil market will increase this year by average by 1.3 million barrels a day (MB/D), instead of 1.4 MB/D which was forecast in March and totaling 105.05 million barrels a day.
“This small adjustment is mainly due to the data obtained for the first quarter of 2025 and the expected impact on oil demand, given recently US duties,” said OPEC, who revises his forecasts on a monthly basis based on financial conditions.
Demand for “black gold” had increased to 103.75 MB/D in 2024.
After increasing global demand by 1.3 MB/D in the first trimester, OPEC expects a slowdown in the second trimester to 1.1 MB/D compared to the corresponding period of 2024, a third -quarter acceleration (1.5 MB/d) and a last quarter with an increase of 1.3 MB/d.
The increase in world demand is expected to be driven mainly by China and India in 2025.
In the OECD countries, oil demand is expected to be “under pressure, due to the possible impact of the new US duties on imports,” the organization said.
“As a result, oil demand in the OECD Zone in the OECD Zone is expected to shrink by 70,000 barrels/day in the second trimester” compared to 2024, while at the same time, OECD European countries are expected to record demand by 20,000 barrels/day and the Asian-Pacific region.
These areas are expected to recover in the second half of the year, focusing on the third quarter.
For 2026, OPEC also revised down the rise in demand in the same proportions as 2025, also from 1.4 MB/d to 1.3 MB/D, with its prediction of global oil demand reaching 106.33 MB/D, compared to 106.63 MB/D at the March report.
Source: RES – EIA