Rate of growth GDP by 2% and inflation further to the 2% target, in an environment of growing investment and external challenges, the report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which was today (3.6.2025) to publicity.
Specifically, the OECD in its report on the Greek economy sees a 2% growth rate for this year and 2.1% for 2026. Primary surpluses are foreseen in 2025 and 2026, at 2.1% and 2.2% of GDP respectively, supplied by the improvement of tax compliance. Debt emphasizes that keeping it on a steady downward trend should remain a priority, as the cost of aging and investment needs increase future pressure pressures.
The OECD reports that grants and loans disbursements from the recovery and resilience fund are expected to increase from 1.8% of GDP to 2024 to 3.6% in 2026, while private consumption is projected to increase 1.2% this year and 1.7% in 2026. Lower oil prices, despite increasing commercial costs and persistent inflation of services.
Exports are expected to slow down, in addition to slowing down demand from abroad, mainly from European Union countries, due to US duties. For the eurozone there is a 1% increase in GDP and 1.2% in 2026, compared to 0.8% which was GDP growth last year. For the global economy, the OECD provides for a significant slowdown in growth to 2.9% for both this year and 2026, from 3.3% in 2024.
The OECD notes that the Greek economy remains strong, with business expectations in the process of manufacturing and services in April, but continuing to indicate a development course. He adds that any delays in absorbing the resources of the Recovery Fund for investment, excessive salaries or a repeat of extreme weather events could exacerbate the prospects of the economy. For salaries he stresses that if their increase continues to overcome productivity increasing, it could further weaken exports.
Maintaining the dynamics of reforms to improve the business environment and alleviate high labor shortages will support an increase in investment. Continuing efforts to reduce tax evasion and reduce tax spending would increase revenue, while creating a space to reduce the low -wage tax and would encourage further increase in employment.
Grants and loan disbursements for recovery and durability are expected to increase from 1.8% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% in 2026.
The risks
Delays in the implementation of the “Greece 2.0” recovery and resilience plan could endanger the planned increase in investment, the OECD stresses.
It also notes that if salaries increase exceeding productivity, it could further weaken exports. Extreme weather events, such as the floods of 2023 in Thessaly, could also adversely affect domestic demand. Further enhancement of investment is a key challenge.
The still high level of public debt raises risks in the medium term, while aging population and climate change increase future pressure on domestic spending.
Low productivity is still a hindrance to competitiveness and living standards, the organization stresses.
In order to ensure the long -term debt viability and enhance growth potential, the OECD stresses the need to accelerate structural reforms. The proposal to reform the VAT regime stands out, with the abolition of the reduced rates that – in the exposure – mainly benefit the highest income strata, without sufficient social targeting.