May Donald Trump boast about US bombings in Iran And to argue that Iran’s nuclear program has slowed down for “decades”, but the New York Times raises a different question: Did Iran’s bombing the wrong message about acquiring nuclear weapons; Does it reinforce the belief that only anyone with a nuclear arsenal can feel safe?
While the White House aspires to send the message that nuclear acquisition will not be tolerated, experts warn that Iran’s teaching that can draw countries such as Saudi Arabia or North Korea is just the opposite – that only a nuclear umbrella New York Times.
It’s been almost twenty years since one country last joined the “club” of nuclear armed nations. Donald Trump, with the bombing of three Iranian nuclear facilities last weekend, vowed to keep the door of this closed closed club forever, the report notes.
Whether this preventive blow will achieve his goal remains uncertain, both because of the short period of time and because of the fragile truce that followed. However, fears are already beginning to be made that Tehran – and not only – may come to a completely different conclusion from what the White House wanted to pass: How nuclear weapons are the only effective means of deterring in a world where threats multiply.
The last country to acquire nuclear was the North Korea – And since then there has never been a goal of attack. She herself has said that her nuclear weapons are not intended for negotiations but to be used against enemies that will threaten her people and world peace.
Trump himself exchanged compliments with Kim Jong Un, and met with him twice in an attempt – without a substantial result – an agreement. In the case of Iran, however, the pattern was completely different: just a few weeks after a new diplomatic approach, Trump ordered B-2 bombers.
“The chances of attempting Iran to acquire a small nuclear arsenal have increased compared to before,” said Robert Einhorn, a specialist in the control of equipment and former negotiator with Iran under the Obama government. “We can assume that several hard -core circles in Tehran now argue that it is time to cross the nuclear threshold.”
The road to acquiring a nuclear bomb is not only easy. As Iinhorn explains, even if Iran decided to move in that direction, he would have overcome huge obstacles – first of all, the threat of new American or Israeli attacks, if this intention is perceived. The status of Tehran remains isolated, fragile and internally divided – and is unclear whether it would dare to openly cause the United States.
The fear of spreading
However, global logic for nuclear is gaining new momentum. The big nuclear forces – USA, Russia and China – They are considered increasingly unreliable or even aggressive than their neighbors. From the Persian Gulf and Central Europe to East Asia, analysts warn that states that have no nuclear are closely monitoring Iran’s fate and export their own, alarming, conclusions.
“North Korea certainly never regretted getting nuclear,” observes Christopher Hill, who led the negotiations with Pyongyang in 2007–2008, with no final result. In his opinion, the “temptation” of the bomb is now growing for US allies in the Middle East and Asia. From World War II onwards, these allies were based on the American “nuclear safety net”. But Trump, with his obsession with the doctrine of “first America”, has shaken this confidence.
“I would be very careful in assuming that the American nuclear umbrella is still valid,” says Hill, a former US ambassador to South Korea, Iraq and Poland. “Countries like Japan and South Korea are wondering if they can actually rely in the United States.”
To Southerly Koreasupport for nuclear acquisition has increased, although the new President Lee Jaj-Mung has pledged to improve relations with the North. In 2023, Joe Biden signed an agreement with Seoul on enhanced cooperation in nuclear planning in an attempt to limit internal pressures for autonomous nuclear capacity.
To Japanwhere public opinion traditionally does not want nuclear – because of Hiroshima’s historical memory – the debate begins to change. There are now voices demanding that US nuclear weapons are stored on Japanese territory, as already in NATO countries. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had stated that if Ukraine had maintained some of her Soviet nuclear, she might have avoided Russia’s invasion.
Putin’s threats to use regular nuclear weapons at the beginning of the war in Ukraine deeply influenced US strategy, which initially hesitated to equip Ukraine more aggressively. At the same time, they reinforced the fear that authoritarian regimes can now exercise “nuclear blackmail” on their neighbors.
As analysts Bruce Ridel and Michael O’Hanlon wrote from the Brookings Institution: “The lesson of Ukraine may be the following – if you have nuclear, keep them. If you don’t, make sure you get. Especially if you do not have a strong prostate like the US and you have more power with greater power that could lead you to war. “
OR Saudi Arabiaa key ally of the US and Iran’s traditional opponent, is watching developments with concern. If Tehran acquires a bomb, Riyadh may feel huge pressure to answer the same way. Washington is trying to reassure it, offering support to a political nuclear program, but the negotiations have stopped because of the Israel -Hamas war.
In the Middle East, Iraq, Syria and Libya They saw their programs dissolve – through diplomacy, sanctions or even military intervention. The case of Libya is the most characteristic: Muammar Gaddafi resigned from the weapons of mass destruction in 2003, but eight years later collapsed from NATO intervention and found a horrible death.
Iran’s strategy to enrich uranium aggressively without reaching the construction of a bomb also did not protect it. “The Iranian case shows that this tactic is not a guarantee of a military attack,” explains Gary Samor of Brandis University.
How much will it affect the hit against Iran the decisions of other countries? It’s early for conclusions. “How will this story end? By agreement? Or with Iran continuing unstoppable to acquire nuclear? “ Wonders Samom.