To pay back now, later or never? What could be his next move Iran After the hit of the USA In three nuclear installations a blow that according to Donald Trump was “successful” and “neutralized” the facilities. In the three Dilemmas of Tehran focuses BBC analysis.
OR Night of US Air Wounds in Iran’s nuclear factories It brings the Middle East to the verge of a dangerous escalation. Tehran threatens with “eternal consequences”, but behind rhetoric, its choices are limited and every step hides serious dangers. How will he answer?
Iran reacted with rage to the US nightlife bombings against three nuclear facilities, promising what he described as “eternal consequences”. Now Iran is called to choose between conflict, delayed response or diplomacy – With the very survival of the regime itself.
Behind the statements, however feverish discussions at higher levels of Iranian security and intelligence services.
Should they escalate the conflict with retaliation against US interests or, as US President Donald Trump called, to negotiate, which in practice mean completely abandoning uranium enrichment within the country?
This internal controversy occurs at a time when many senior Iranian military leaders are wondering if they will be the next targets of an expensive Israeli blow or if someone has already betrayed them in Mosad, Israel’s secret service.
In general, there are three basic strategic choices for Iran. No one is without risk and in the minds of those who make decisions is dominated by the issue of Islamic regime’s survival.
1. Hard and immediate counterattack
Many ask for blood. Iran has undergone humiliation, first by Israel and now from what it often calls “Great Satan” – the US.
His conflict with Israel continues for a tenth day, but an attack on the US raises the risk to another level – Not only for Iran but for the whole area.
It is estimated that Iran has about half of its original 3,000 rocket stocks, using or lost the rest in clashes with Israel.
It has a list of about 20 US bases in the Middle East. The most obvious is the 5th Fleet of the US Navy Fleet in Mina Salman in Bahrain. But Iran may hesitate to hit an Arabic gulf country.
More likely to activate his paramilitary forces in Iraq and Syria to attack more isolated American bases, such as at AT-Than, Ain al-Assad or Erbil.
He has previous: When Trump ordered the assassination of Kundz’s leader Kassem Suleimani, in 2020, Iran responded with an attack on US forces in Iraq, but gave warning to avoid losses. This time it may not do the same.
It could also launch attacks on US warships, with drones and quick torpedoes – a tactic practiced by the revolution guards.
The purpose of such an attack would be to flood American defenses with mass power.
At the same time, Iran may ask its allies, them Houthi in Yemen, Repeat attacks on western ships crossing the Red Sea.
There are also financial goals: the most serious would be to block the straits of the hormofrom where 20% of world oil passes. It could do so by mine, causing a huge risk for warships and merchant ships.
In addition, Iran has sophisticated opportunities for cyber war – as well as North Korea, Russia and China. OR Introduction of malicious software to US networks It is an option that is definitely examined.
2. Delayed reaction
This would mean waiting until the tension was dumped and Attack unexpectedly at a time when the US has relaxed security measures.
This attack could target US diplomatic or commercial offices or take the form targeted murder.
But this is the case risk of new attacks by the US – Maybe at a time when the Iranians return to their daily lives.
3. No retaliation
This would be an option that requires huge restraint, But Iran would protect from further attacks.
It could choose the diplomatic path and restart conversations with the US. As the Iranian Foreign Minister pointed out, Iran never left the negotiations – in his own view, it was Israel and the US that shaken them in the air.
Restarting the talks in Muscat, Rome or elsewhere would only make sense if Iran accepted the Red Limit that US and Israel: maintain its nuclear program only if it sends all the celestial overseas for enrichment.
However, not making any move after such a blow would make the Iranian regime seem weak – especially after all warnings of strong consequences.
In the end, it may decide that the risk of overthrowing its regime is higher than the cost of new US wounds, the analysis concludes.