May the time it took to be agreed (between CDU and SPD) the new government program and thus pave the way for the formation of a cooperation government in Germany To be appreciated by the German press as a brief – in relation to other cases in the past – but never in the country’s post -war past has been so weak, though one would expect the opposite …
And this first – first because The CDU, although with the government with the SPD and indirect greenery support, no longer holds the lead in national polls in Germany.
She “lost”, according to today’s poll, by the far -right AfD, just a month and a half after the national elections.
AFD is now a democratically first party, displacing the CDU in second place, covering a 7 -point difference in 45 days!
An indication of the pressure exerted on the CDU is the proposal of a local organization in the Saxony – Ahhalt state, according to which the Christian Democratic “Wall of Protection” that “forbids” the CDU with the AfD.
Secondly, Never post -war government in Germany had never been -even before -a potential (borrowed) “jerk” (of 1.1 trillion or almost 1/4 of GDP to spend on investment in defense and infrastructure.
However, the international press expresses very intense reservations about whether and when the Merz government will be able to use this (we emphasize: borrowing) “compartment”.
The main obstacles are the following: state bureaucracy, duties and… afd.
State bureaucracy existed 2-3 years ago and is therefore, according to analysts, that the previous Special Defense Fund of 100 billion. euro (set up by the outgoing government after the explosion of the war in Ukraine) did not disburse only 1/3 of its resources.
The AfD, as already mentioned above, is (the poll) the first party in Germany and the second in the House, and so the CDU – SPD government coalition will constantly find it not only in front of it, but also against it as it disagrees with all that he is embodied and above all with the SPD growth of the CDU, Debt for defense.
This does not mean that the AfD can be left untouched by the existential crisis that Germany is going through.
Yesterday (9.4.25) two seemingly completely different views between the two AFD leaders were formulated in relation to Trump duties: Weidel opposed Trump duties because they are affecting the German economy, while Kroupala recognized the right to Trump to defend his economy.
Taking, however, considering the embrace between Musk and AfD, one may believe Kroupala.
Whatever it is openly or secretly advocating the far -right AfDTrump’s duties against the EU primarily affect Germany, with the estimates of the German Ministry of Finance, Jurgen Koukis, to refer to a 15% reduction in exports and forecasts of all think tank for a certain, 4th in a row, recession of Europe’s economic locomotive.
Continuing and probably deepening the recession in Germany as a result of the tariff war, it means less tax revenue and thus the need for budget cuts and for greater public lending.
These two “outlets” mean a social reaction and increased borrowing costs respectively.
These consequences are already here: not only the far -right AfD, but the Left Party (Linke) are rising poll, and the yields of German government bonds have also gone up.
So before even a cent in the German economy falls from the investment from the Defense Fund and the Infrastructure Fund, the upcoming Mertz government is at the corner with the US dancing in the pan, one with duties, the other with the threat of military retirement from Europe,
And this is the third ’emptiness’ of the upcoming government coalition in Germany: his inability to prevent the Bundestag and Bundesrat re -equipment program before the Americans leave Europe.
Withdrawal may not only be military but also financial, seeing that trade duties can reach, eg investment freezing, taxes on US digital platforms, etc.
According to a Bloomberg report yesterday, the minimum required by European diplomats from the Americans is to… inform them before taking their soldiers from Europe.
But seeing how Americans behave in Europeans on the front of the peace talks (that is, with complete indifference), one should not exclude one to learn the exit of Americans from Europe from (American) media.