The decision – catapult deprived of Marin Le Pen the right to go down to her presidential elections France In 2027 it was not a thunderbolt. Her far -right party, a national alarm (RN), although aware of her increased risk of conviction, refused to seriously consider this possibility. As a result, the decision of 31 March 2025 is a serious blow to both French Far -right As for the party itself, as there does not appear to be a clear successor to take on the role of the candidate, and is expected to have an impact in and out of France.
Although the Zordan Bardella, League MEP and Le Penn’s “Poulin” For the leadership of the party, it is considered a natural successor, its lack of political experience is an important obstacle. After all, in 2027, in the presidential election in France, it will be only 31 years old, which makes him politically unknown for a presidential candidacy.
OR Le Pen has already announced that it will appeal, However, the chances of overthrowing the decision are limited. In the near future, he will probably attempt to appear as a victim of political prosecution, adopting a rhetoric similar to that of Ala Donald Trump in the US.
As the The world, The French far -right loses its “natural” candidate for the presidency. Marin Lepen was a candidate in the 2012, 2017 and 2022 elections, reaching twice in the second round to eventually lose to Emmanuel Macron.
Her condemnation, in theory, could favor Jean -Lik Melanson, a leader of the France (LFI), who has not hidden his presidential ambitions over time. The 72 -year -old politician participates in the four -party coalition of the Left, a New People’s Front (NFP), formed to prevent Le Pen in the 2024 parliamentary elections. However, his real goal is the presidency.
With the French political scene being reshaped, it is uncertain who could stand against him as a central or center -right opponent. His departure Emmanuel Macronwhich is not entitled to a third term, leaves the question open for the next leadership of the Renaissance Central at a time when his party is in danger of splitting, as Macron did not make sure to ensure his stability and his potential successors are enough.
Marin Le Pen’s dilemma
And now the Le Pen is ahead of a critical decision for its future after being excluded from the 2027 election: Will he silently accept the decision or choose an aggressive reaction that will upset the political scene?
Her choice will have a decisive impact on the political scene of France in the coming years and any path follows will be full of risks and challenges.
The French court found her guilty Monday (31.03.2025) for abuse of European funds and imposed an immediate ban on nomination for the next five years. If its appeal fails, it will serve a four -year prison sentence, two of which on home restriction.
Her choice is to make back And to let her protector, Zordan Bardella, claim the presidency, though at 29 he is considered infinite. However, such a move may reduce the chances of its party’s (RN) victory, while at the same time wasting the political capital that its condemnation can offer it.
On the other hand, could choose the hard confrontationdenouncing the French judicial system and at the same time trying to throw the government. But such an attitude It may angered the French voters and hit the party itself.
Already, Lepen and its allies characterize the court ruling ‘Democratic scandal’, showing that she does not intend to accept her conviction.
“Tonight, millions of French are outraged, seeing that in France, the country of human rights, judges apply practices that were considered characteristic of authoritarian regimes,” She told TF1 herself.
The political scene becomes more chaotic
Le Pen remains one of the most recognizable and popular figures in French politics. Its party has the largest parliamentary power and took first place in the 2024 European elections.
In the short term, the government of Emmanuel Macron is the one that can be most affected. In recent days, leading national alarm executives have threatened to overturn it, citing energy policy. Now, they may proceed to a censure proposal, which could succeed if the left is drawn up with them. Prime Minister François Bairou’s government is based on a fragile parliamentary majority and such a move could destabilize it.
Le Pen may follow Donald Trump’s example by presenting her conviction as Political Prosecution from the Left, in order to rally its base. Indeed, Trump’s ally, Elon Musk, said that “when the radical left cannot win democratically, the legal system is abusing to imprison its opponents.”
Although the national alarm is rooted in the far -right, with elements of racism and anti -Semitism, Le Pen has tried to smooth it out and broaden its electoral appeal. She always emphasized that she respects the institutions of the French Republic, but her condemnation brings new data.
Bardela’s role
Bardella, in his post on X (former twitter), described Le Pen’s conviction “Execution of democracy”. With hashtag #IsupportMarine And a call for “peaceful popular mobilization”, reinforces the theory that Le Pen will adopt an aggressive attitude towards justice.
Bardella is considered her successor, but many doubt his ability to unite the party and stand against traditional right -wing candidates such as Interior Minister Brino Retagio and Republican chief Erik Siota.
Although recent polls show that Bardela is rates similar to Le Penn in the first round of the 2027 presidential election, it is lagging behind the Central Candidates in a possible second round.
In recent years, the French political scene has been shaped by the constant rise of Le Pen, with its far -right positions on immigration and Islam becoming more and more dominant. At the same time, her political opponents join forces to keep her out of power.
Within this chaotic landscape, one thing is now almost certain: neither Macron nor Le Penn, the two most powerful French politics, will be candidates in the 2027 elections, concludes Politico.
Right -wing turmoil in France and Europe?
Another crucial point if Le Pen’s condemnation will rekindle the far -right in France and Europe. Justice may have shown that it does not frighten up from the high percentage of polls and its popularity, but here is a political trap: the more Le Penn as a persecuted, the more fanatical. Both her audience – the hard far -right – appears and rallying.
The absence of Le Pen from the political scene can weaken the national alarm, which has played a central role in the European far -right, and the party may find it difficult to maintain its influence at national level and throughout Europe.
But given the rise of the far -right to government coalitions throughout the Old Epirus, the condemnation of Marin Le Pen can equally rally its supporters, further polarizing the EU.
Still, leaders such as Georgia Meloni and Victor Orban can perceive her condemnation as an opportunity to claim primacy in shaping the European far -right.
For the time being, however Europe’s far -right leaders, such as Viktor Orban and Matteo Salvini, express strong support for Le Pennframing the judicial verdict as “a politically motivated attack on nationalist movements”.