After attacking Israel to Iranthe price of crude oil increased by up to 13%, but the possible prolonged price increases could further supply the global population.
Following Israeli air raids in Iran, oil price increased to 13% today (13.6.25). From time to time, Brent -type crude oil cost over $ 78 a barrel (159 liters). This is the highest increase in price since March 2022, after Russia’s attack on Ukraine.
The war in the Middle East has caused repeatedly sharp increases in prices in the past. The fears that Iran will exclude the straits of the Ormuz play an important role in it. About one fifth of world oil production is transported daily through the strait, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Oman Gulf.
However, analysts believe that an exclusion is extremely unlikely, as Iran needs the strait itself for significant exports, which it also uses to finance its war, according to Handelsblatt.
However, if this extreme scenario is implemented, oil prices could increase “well over $ 100”, warns Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, a Danish investment company, a Danish investment company, in a commentary on the market. The UKMTO British Center for Business (UKMTO) has already issued a warning of increased risk for ships in the Arabic Gulf, Oman Gulf and Ormuz Strait.
If transports are interrupted through the narrow strains, this could affect up to 14 million barrels per day, says Ing Warren Patterson’s strategic analyst. This would be enough to drive prices to $ 120 per barrel.
“If the disorders continue by the end of the year, we could see new record prices over the previous high of 2008 (close to $ 150 per barrel),” he warns. JP Morgan analysts also believe that an extreme scenario is likely to increase prices up to $ 130.
However, even a short break in oil production and supply could lead to higher prices. According to an Opec Plus oil alliance report, Iran produced about 3.3 million barrels in April. This is about three percent of world oil production.
According to the Ing Patterson analyst, exports of up to 1.7 million barrels per day could be at risk in the event of an attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure. This would be enough to put the market in a deficit. In such a scenario, the Brent could negotiate at $ 75 to $ 80 per barrel.
Until now, analysts have been expecting an over -supply in the oil market, due to the unexpected increases in OPEC supply and the conflict of duties. But now, at least the traders are expecting a shortage of oil market, as the curve of the future Brent crude oil contracts show. The short -term delivery contracts are currently negotiating significantly higher than the long -term procurement contracts, indicating a limited supply situation.
These are the consequences for the global economy
If oil prices remain higher for a longer period of time, this could have an inflationary effect. The US Federal Bank (FED) is already facing a difficult decision on interest rates, in the light of the possible impact of US tariff measures on prices.
Although energy prices are excluded from the calculation of structural inflation, which the Fed uses for monetary policy decisions, a shock to oil prices could be passed through salaries or other prices, a so -called secondary phenomenon.
An increase in Brent’s price to $ 100 could, according to estimates by Bloomberg economists, increase gasoline prices in the US by up to 17% and increase the consumer price index by 0.6 percentage points.