The Israel has long envisioned a military attack on his nuclear facilities IranBut many factors in the Middle East, US and Europe now wonder if the time has arrived.
New York Times in extensive reports said officials in the United States and Europe believe that Israel seems to be preparing for a possible hit, Even when the Trump government is seeking an agreement with Iran to limit its nuclear program.
An Israeli attack would be in danger of triggering a regional war that could drag USwhich withdrew some diplomats and staff from the Middle East this weekfearing an Iranian retaliation.
President Trump has warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack Iran, increasing tensions between the two leaders.
It is still not clear whether increased tensions reflect a true Israeli plan to attack or are an attempt to influence nuclear talks between the United States and Iran.
Why can Israel attack now?
Israel has long been determined to prevent Iran, its fastest enemy, to acquire a nuclear weapon. Since the rise of the Islamic Republic in the late 1970s, Iran’s leaders have repeatedly promised to destroy Israel.
Iran’s nuclear program has progressed significantly over the last decade, analysts say. It is now on the verge of being able to build enough nuclear material to supply 10 nuclear weapons, although the production of a useful bomb would probably require many more months.
On Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran has not complied with its obligations regarding the non -dissemination of nuclear weapons – the first such accusation for two decades. Iran condemned the vote, saying that it “completely questioning the credibility and prestige” of the nuclear observer.
But Iran has been weakened since Hamas launched the attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which triggered the war in Gaza. Hamas and Hezbollah, supported by Iran, have been decimated in their wars with Israel.
Netanyahu has privately argued that Iran’s “weakness” will not last long, which means that Israel has a limited window to launch an attack.
What is the state of US-Jan nuclear talks?
Americans and Iranian negotiators were planning to meet Oman on Sunday for a sixth round of talks about the Iranian nuclear program. The two sides have come to a dead end for whether Iran should continue to enrich heaven within its borders.
During his first term, Mr Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, signed by Barack Obama, mocking the deal as a “one -sided”. This time, it seems to want to avoid engaging in a large -scale conflict in the Middle East.
Earlier this week, Mr Trump said Iran had adopted an “unacceptable” negotiating position and downgraded the prospects of an agreement. “I’m getting less confident about it,” he told New York Post in a podcast on Wednesday. “They seem to be delayed and I think this is a shame.”
However, Mr Trump has warned Mr Netanyahu often not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities while the talks are ongoing. “I told him that it would be inappropriate to do so right now, because we are very close to a solution,” Mr Trump said in May.
Why are Israel and Iran hate?
Iran and Israel have been enemies for decades. Iran has supported a network of paramilitary groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, to push Israel on multiple fronts. Israel has bombed locations in Syria and has murdered Iranian nuclear scientists.
In the last year, their shadow war has become obvious. In April 2024, Israel assassinated Iranian head of security at a air raid in Syria, causing Iran to launch hundreds of unmanned aircraft and missiles in Israel. Israel later returned its fire in Iran.
Several months later, Iran launched more than 150 rockets against Israel in response to the murder of Hassan Nasrala, the leader of Hezbollah, in Lebanon, and the murder of Ismail Haniya, the leader of Hamas in Tehran. Israel retaliated by re -bombing Iran’s aerial defense.
Israel’s attacks have virtually eliminated four S-300 air defense systems purchased by Iran from Russia, Iranian and Israeli officials said, including a near Natanz, a city in central Iran which is critical to the country’s nuclear program.
Could Israel do it alone?
Israel has sophisticated military potential. But military analysts say that the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program would be difficult, even for one of the strongest forces in the Middle East, and would probably require US military support.
Previous Israeli attack plans in Iran were largely based on US support. Israel also hopes that US forces will defend Israel from Iranian retaliation, which are expected to be immediate and dynamic.
Israeli planes will have to fly long distances to hit Iran. In similar attacks, such as those against Houthi in Yemen, Israeli forces have thrown more than 1,000 miles, using dozens of fighter aircraft that had to be refuted in the middle of the flight. Israel has carried out such operations in the past, but a mass attack would try the range of its resources.
Experts say the destruction of all Iran’s nuclear facilities – some of which are in strong reinforced underground facilities under mountains – would require extremely powerful ammunition. The United States has so far denied the Israeli demands for the largest bomb in their arsenal, a 30,000-pound bomb.
And if an Israeli blow fails to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, it could lead the weapon program deeper into the subsoil, leading Iran to exclude the few nuclear inspectors who still have regular, though limited, access to its main facilities.
An Israeli blow could also push Iran’s leaders to finally decide to fight for a bomb – the line that his mules and generals have, for almost a quarter of the century, stop crossing.