After Israel’s military attacks against Iranthere are fears that the Islamic Republic is using its southern strait towards Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as an international pressure lever for its prices oil And, so, for the world economy.
“The closure of the strait of the Ormuz (Iran controlled) would be an absolute nightmare for the purchase of oil,” warns Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of the Global Risk Management Supply Consulting Company. “If Iran is blocking this narrow congestion, it could affect up to 20% of world oil flows,” according to Handelsblatt.
The tankers carry about 20 of the 22.8 million barrels of oil produced by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait and Qatar daily through the strait, which is only 55 kilometers wide. Iran itself also uses them. The country delivers almost three million barrels of oil a day. A barrel fits 159 liters.
Analysts of Ing Investment Bank explain that there is no real alternative to shipping through the Ormuz Romance in most of these countries. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited options to turn to the east-west oil pipeline through the Arabian Peninsula and the Abu Dhabi crude pipeline.
“The first, however, leads to the Red Sea, which has already been bypassed,” Ing notes. Rocket attacks by Houthi militia there have been a significant risks for months.
The supply chain industry is now in a very tense situation after Israeli attacks in Iran. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Organization (UKMTO) issued a formal warning on Friday night. He said there was a “increased risk” of military operations in the maritime area off the coast of Iran. “It is advisable for ships to navigate to the Arabic Gulf, the Gulf of Oman and the strait of the Ormuz carefully and to report any incidents.” In Great Britain, the Persian Gulf is referred to as Arabic Gulf.
In 2019, an incident at this site caused an immediate increase in oil prices. At that time, a Saudi tanker hit a mine shortly after an Iranian speedboat had crossed his sea road. Other tankers suffered damage from sabotage.
Iran has been equipped since March. It is considered possible that there will be further attacks. In March, Iran announced the development of new rocket systems in the three strategic islands, the Grand Tonge, the small Tonge and Abu Moussa. Everything is close to the strait of the hormone. An Iranian maritime commander told state television at the time that new systems could “completely destroy any target within a radius of 600 kilometers”.
Just in mid -April, Iranian forces also occupied the MSc Aries container ship. The 24 sailors aboard the Israeli ship Mega-Cargo, which has a capacity of 15,000 standard containers, were caught hostage. Experts interpreted the attack as a retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian Embassy in Syria.
If further attacks on ships on the strait of the hormoz will occur, the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will also be jeopardized. Qatar, the third largest exporter LNG in the world, carries more than 100 billion cubic meters of this source through the strait annually, which corresponds to about one fifth of international LNG trade.
As Qatar plans to increase its capacity to over 170 billion cubic meters by 2027, the narrow will become even more important for LNG flows in the future, IG analysts warn. “As Europe is increasingly dependent on LNG on the war of Russia -Ukraine, LNG market disorders in Europe will have a more noticeable impact,” the investment bank fears.
DHL could also be affected by blocking
A close block of the strait could also affect the German Logistics DHL group. Just last week, the company listed in Bonn’s DAX announced its intention to invest a total of half a billion euros in the Gulf region by 2030 – especially in the Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
DHL is already operating a 60,000 -square -foot logistics hub in the Abu Dhabi free trade zone near the port of Jebel Ali. From there, the German company delivers customers in Saudi Arabia by train, while other missions continue by boat to the eastern coast of Africa, India and the Maldives. An exclusion of the strait of the Ormuz could lead this business to an almost deadlock.