In the vestibule of the fall the Government of France and in the IMF depth

The first European government to fall under Trump’s ruling in the US will probably be that of France under François Bairouif he does not receive a vote of confidence from the French Parliament on September 8, 2025 due to his weakness passing his new financial program.

It is recalled that the Bairo government was formed in December 2024 after the fall of the Barnier government formed in September 2024, following early elections Macron for May – June 2024.

Trump won the presidential election in November 2024, but assumed his duties in January 2025, while It began implementing its program with a frontal to increase duties against all countries on the globe, along with the EU since April 2025.

The consequences in the EU, along with France by international Trump politics (which includes not only duties, but also the imposition of 5% of GDP on defense spending on NATO countries) were negative Immediately after the start of her unfolding and they came to aggravate her from the before (that is, before Trump takes over the presidency) a problematic situation of the economy and the budget of Macron’s country …

Two are the most important fields that indicate the deterioration of France’s financial and fiscal status: one is The appreciation of the euro and the other The increase in yields of French government bonds.

More specifically, after the start of the World Duty War (April 2025):

  • The euro has been made by 13% more expensive than the dollar, something that makes a corresponding percentage more accurate French exportswithout taking into account the damage from US duties, initially at 10% and then at 15%. The consequence of the reconstruction of French exports will be none other than the cause of significant damage to the already minimal growth of the French economy.
  • The yields of 10 -year French Bonds also increased by almost 13% in April – August 2025surpassing 3.5% yesterday and “imposing” the French Finance Minister, Eric Lobar, to warn of appeal to the … IMF. This is because the increase in bond yields means increasing the cost of lending to the French state, which the country cannot raise, but by IMF loans and draconian austerity.,

What do the above developments mean? That while a decline in France’s GDP (under the shadow under the pressure of international policy

What were the forecasts for France before the current political crisis

A look at the annual report of the Greek Embassy’s Economic and Commercial Affairs Office in Paris (published on July 24, 2025) shows the test passing by the French economy:

  • “The French economy in 2025 is projected to move to low but positive growth rates, according to the three major international sources. Both the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the OECD converge in the estimation that GDP growth will be +0.6 % for the whole year. It is a slowdown compared to 2024, Where growth is estimated at +1.1 %, mainly due to political uncertainty and investment reduction. “
  • “Inflation is expected to remain sluggish. The European Commission provides for only 0.9 %average inflation based on the harmonized index (HICP), while the IMF places the index slightly higher, around 1.8 %, and the OECD at about 1.2 %. The slowdown in inflation is due to the decline in energy prices and the retention of private consumption. “
  • “In the field of employment, the European Commission provides for an increase in unemployment to 7.9 % in 2025 (from 7.4 % in 2024), reflecting sluggish demand and delays in recovery of industrial production.”
  • «The fiscal deficit is expected to remain high, although slightly reduced. The European Commission places it at 5.6 % of GDP, while the OECD provides for a slightly better picture with 5.4 %. Despite the consolidation efforts, public finances are still affected by high social costs, fiscal pressure from local authorities and the impact of income tax relief. It is noted that France is in Excessive deficit procedure (EDP) in the European Union, and it started on July 26, 2024, by decision of the EU Council “.
  • “With regard to public debt, the situation remains alarming. The European Commission estimates that it will reach 116 % of GDP, while the OECD places the ratio even higher, close to 120 %, ranking France in the most burdensome countries in the eurozone in absolute debt sizes. “
  • “The overall picture is that the French economy will move on a stabilization track in 2025, with mild growth, low inflation, but with significant fiscal and structural problems. High public debt, rise in unemployment and political uncertainty continue to act as a hindrance to a return to strong growth rates. However, export dynamics and a possible recovery of investment in the second half of the year – especially if the political situation is stabilized – may boost economic activity in 2026, for which all organizations provide for growth rates of more than 1.2 %. “

Source link

Leave a Comment