Shock has caused the European capitals to the President of the President USADonald Trump, to enforce dictatorial 30% to imports from EU from August 1, 2025.
Although yesterday (13.7.25), Commission President Ursula von der Laene kept the tones low, calling for the continuation of US -EU negotiations and Avoiding countermeasures by August 1 No one can… overlook the fact that A 30% rate is well above the 20% announced by Trump on April 2, 2025 and even more than the 10% that was finally in place from April 9, 2025 until today.
Other words if Trump insists on the 30% lineduties that will be imposed on imports from the EU in the nearly fifteen days from today will be three times as much as those imposed for three months.
How the EU will react will appear more today (14.7.25), as the European Foreign Affairs Council on Trade Affairs is scheduled, where – according to newsit.gr information – possible countermeasures will be discussed more extensively.
Throughout the past 2 months, it was in progress to launch lists by country imports simple US $ 95 billion that could be imposed anti -duties, though the bar seems to be falling below this threshold …
Obviously no one can predict whether Trump would insist – and for how long – he could insist on 30%, but can significantly predict the impact on the European economy from such a possibility.
And these are summarized (according to all the analyzes that have seen the light of publicity) in a few phrases: recession and possibly further decline in prices.
The second expected incidence (pricing drop) is generally welcome, but certainly not in combination with recession, as it would probably lead the economy to a downward spiral …
The impact on Greece of escalating the duty war
As for the first impact, namely the recession, its “hostils” are already perceived, as in the first quarter of 2025 -that is, before the 10%duties were even imposed, EU GDP increased by only 0.6%, while Greek GDP increased by 2.2%.
The initial official forecast of the Ministry of Finance and the Commission is about 2.3%this year, but the National Bank of Greece now provides for 2.1%growth, while the KEPE 2.2%.
Possible triple US duties against the EU from August 1, 2025, is expected to lead to a sharp recession the European economy (If in the meantime, that is, in the second quarter of 2025, there has already been no negative “growth” rate).
Each loss of European GDP by 1 percentage point costs 0.5 unit in Greek GDP, according to existing forecast models (although they are in question).
And this is because of the great dependence of the Greek economy on the European, as the overwhelming proportion of exports is directed to the EU and a recession in production (and therefore consumption) will also affect Greek production …
In this respect, the impact of Trump duties – as it is said in public dialogue – will be above all indirect and not immediate, as Greek exports to the US are proportionally very small compared to other countries (just about 5% of the total).
However, as newsit.gr has pointed out, ‘Indirect’ effects do not mean… small, not only through Europe, As the whole planet is – and not just the EU! The high duties he announced last week, Trump against global agricultural production countries, such as Brazil, have already brought new ratings to basic foodstuffs, such as coffee.
This means that there may be a tendency to reduce prices due to the reduction of oil demand under the pressure of recessionary trends (although this factor may at any time disappear from a new tension in the Middle East), but it could be offset by increased increased products necessary for the survival of populations …
Under these conditions, in the event of the implementation of the Trump announcement for 30% against the EU (and consequently a recession in the latter’s economy), these models show pressure on Greek GDP at growth rates well below 2% to the end of the year and at the beginning of the next, according to valid news.
If this is happening this year, then there will be an impact on tax revenue not only this year but also in 2026.
The open front of the extra increase in defense spending
And that at the same time that open Brussels speaks of “continuous” measures to increase revenue or “redistribution” of spending from 2026in order to increase defensive costs (according to NATO’s last session decisions) does not threaten fiscal viability in particular, EU members of the EU, such as Greece.
If the 30% against the EU duties are verified in the midst of this year, Greece – like all European countries – will have eaten one…“Goal from the locker room”as it even planning its budget for 2026, but also in the coming years, according to the new … “Stability Pact”, à la NATO (which provides for an increase in defense spending from 2% to 5% to 2035 by landmark in 2029) with the demand for tax revenue, it would probably be reduced by tax revenue, Economic activity that Trump will bring.
So the Greek government -at the most critical, perhaps, moment of its term -should find additional resources in its budget (either from taxes or from expenditure cuts), not only for the further increase in defense expenditure, but also to cover the holes created by the state -run duties.
And at this time (and specifically in 2026) that the resources of the recovery fund will end (given negative consequences on GDP), while the forthcoming further increase in defense spending will not only go overwhelmingly to Greek defense companies, but may not even go to Europe.
At the same time, in circles of international analysts, giant doubts are expressed by whether the giant flow of capital since the beginning of the year from