After the Prime Minister of France François Bairou He played his head, risking his head at the National Assembly, the President Emmanuel Macron is at the center again.
However Emmanuel Macron does not have many options after the François Bairou’s apparent ‘suicide’ And the danger of France’s rule is high.
After all The appointment of a new prime minister, the establishment of a technocratic government or the dismantling of the National Assembly –The previous, June 2024, was the one that he was pushing the political chaos – does not seem to be viable solutionsin a fragmented parliament, if Bayrou falls.
Two other scenarios are considered even more unlikely: the Survival of the Baire Government and the resignation of the President of the Republic himself.
Asking for a vote of confidence from the National Assembly on Monday, the Prime Minister immediately received a negative response from all opposition partiesfrom the far right to the left, including the socialists.
“The result is known in advance, unless he finds, in the next ten days, a road that will lead to real negotiation with the political forces,” who want “to shut down part of the budget plan,” political scientist Vensan Martini said.
Bairou is “clear, courageous and militant” a politician assured in the morning, leaving the prime minister’s meeting with the leaders of the government. “He told us: We have 15 days to convince. We have to turn to public opinion, “this executive added.
But the prime minister is at the same time extremely unpopular, which complicates his bet.
Macron could decide to assign him a government again, even if he is defeated on September 8 at the National Assembly. But the problem would remain intact, unless it modifies the budget of 2026, which has been categorically rejected by opposition and public opinion.
Another solution for Macron would be to commission the prime minister to another person of trust himself and Matinion, as to Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorni. “But the situation would remain the same, since this prime minister did not present a radically different budget,” Martin said.
The choice of a prime minister from the left remains. “But it is probably too late” as parties’ positions become more rigid as the 2027 presidential election approaches, said Matie Galar, research director at the Ipsos Polls Institute.
There is also the solution of the technocratic government, which will bring a little more stability in view of the debt impairment measures it should impose.
Some call for the dismantling, again, of the National Assembly so that everyone will take on their responsibilities and clarify, once again, the balances of forces. After the 2024 experiment, however, with the hasty and incomprehensible to the French dismantling of Parliament, Macron appears more hesitant than ever. Quite simply “he doesn’t want it,” said an executive officer in the Presidential camp.
There may be no other choice. “If a new government is voted down before budget approval, instability would create the conditions for dismantling” of the National Assembly, one member of the government estimated.
Some see only one solution, the resignation of the leader of the state who has ruled France since 2017 and was re-elected in 2022. or his deportation, as Jean-Luc Melanson, the leader of the radical left, persistently demanded. “Chaos, is Macron,” he told France Inter radio station today.
But the President repeatedly reiterates that he will complete his term in 2027, whatever happens in the meantime.