If many of the technologies already in place are widely implemented and with the adoption of the right policies, new cars in 2030 could consume even half as much fuel as new cars today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates. In two reports issued on Wednesday, it predicts that the number of cars on the road will have doubled by 2020 and that increased oil consumption in the future will be driven entirely by increased transport demand. If new, strict policies are put in place, consumption may stabilize, but without action vehicles will end up needing twice as much oil as they do today.
The IEA points out that vehicles on the road today consume around 75% of the energy used in transport, which in turn is responsible for 20% of total energy consumption worldwide. According to one report, the potential to improve fuel economy across all vehicle types by 2030 ranges from 30 to 50 percent over 2005 levels.
More efficient transmission systems, lighter materials, hybrid and electric vehicles, better aerodynamic performance as well as lights, heating and cooling systems that consume less energy are some of the existing technologies that the IEA is betting on to limit fuel demand in the future. As pointed out, they are not widespread enough because of the additional cost, although this is offset by fuel savings.
According to the report’s authors, in order to boost market penetration of such technologies, governments will need to take action by raising the bar on fuel economy standards, providing greater financial incentives to drivers, and investing more in the research and development of even more advanced technologies with the aim of further saving fuel.
“Tackling the issue of road transport energy consumption is vital to enhancing energy security and reducing carbon dioxide emissions,” says the agency’s deputy executive director Richard Jones. “Conventional internal combustion engine vehicles will continue to exist for a long time and, without the right policy combinations, such as those outlined in these reports, energy demand from cars will become unsustainable.”
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