The International Monetary Fund (IMF) based in Washington revised its forecasts for global development in 2025 and 2026.
Specifically, the IMF estimates that global growth will slow down at 3% in 2025 from 3.3% last year, amidst the upheavals of the US president’s efforts to remodel trade. The forecasts are slightly better than those of April, but they greatly reflect distortions such as the premature supply of products pending tariffs.
However, the organization has warned that the global economy is still weakened and remains vulnerable to commercial crises even if it shows signs of resilience to US President Donald Trump duties.
The IMF increased its prediction for global growth by 0.2 percentage points to 3% for 2025 and by 0.1 unit to 3.1% for 2026, below 3.3% predicted in January for years, and well below the historical average prior to the pandemic, which was 3.7%. The prospects for 2026 were upgraded from 3% to 3.1%. However, although the forecasts are slightly better than those of April, they mainly reflect temporary distortions, such as discounting prior to duties, report analysts at Bloomberg.
“Although the commercial crisis may prove less serious than originally scared, it is still significant and there is more and more evidence that it is hurting the world economy,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters. “The current commercial environment remains unstable.”