With a basic advantage of the supreme surplus in the budget in 2024 and a key disadvantage the possible recession And above all the uncertainty (as a consequence of the World War of Targets that has erupted since April 2) is moving the country’s financial staff in the second and most critical quarter of the year.
Even if a Greek state budget can withstand – without serious deviations – the recessionary pressures launched by the US Tariff War, starting with the US, A decrease in growth rates or worse still a recession of the Greek economy would lead to a decline or worse, freezing the increases provided by the insurance law on main pensions in December 2025.
According to the Treasury a month ago, the primary surplus in 2024 is estimated to close 3.5%of GDP (thanks to revenue overpayment), instead of predictions for 2.5%, while Newsit.gr sources from banking circles should not be more than 3.5%.
It means At least in the first months of 2025, the same over-release will be noted, thus creating a “pillow” in possible losses in the event of further exacerbations for growth in the eurozone (due to Trump duties, etc.) and so for the Greek economy.
Although the Commission has so far avoided being officially placed on the Eurozone GDP forecasts after April 2 (it is indicative that it has been delayed to issue forecasts for its major economies), the main scenario predictedgrowth (in the eurozone) under 0.9% of theAnd that would be a second review (as the first prediction rang 1.2%).
The “signal” for even lower growth in the eurozone this year due to Trump duties 10% against the EU, may be given on Thursday, April 17, 2025, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, in her statements, following the announcement of the new ones.
What would mean lower growth in the eurozone for Greece? The same sources on newsit.gr report how Further decrease in rhythm growth (below 0.9%) would lead to growth below 2%in Greece, against a prediction of 2.3%.
An important counterweight to a decline in growth rate in Greece is the reduction in international oil prices, the expected reduction in ECB interest rates, the reduction of inflation, and the appreciation of the euro.
The expensive euro, though affecting the large export economies of the eurozone (and thus indirectly demanding – and – Greek imports), favors Greece as it makes its imports cheaper than third parties (ie non -European countries) on its economy, the same sources note.
However, the main front that will judge the course of the Greek economy is of course the European: according to the models used by analysts, Every 1% loss for eurozone GDP means 1% loss in GDP, although in recent years this ratio has fallen to 1% to 0.3% – 0.5% due to funds entering the Greek economy from the recovery fund.
That is, if the Eurozone GDP loses 1%, the Greek economy will lose 0.3% – 0.5%.
The milestone on whether there will be a sedimentation of the European economy – and possibly Greek – in recession is none other than the coming Julywhen the three -month suspension of duties expires 20%.
If Trump finally decides to impose 20%duties on the EU in July, then the most likely scenario provides for the EU’s abrupt entry into the recession in the third quarter compared to the second quarter of 2025 and the entry of the Greek economy at 0.5%growth rates, after 1%. according to the same sources.
But even if it increases duties to 20% next July and keep them to 10% and only the uncertainty that Trump causes with his policy can lead to a single marginal recession in the eurozone.
As for the expected positive consequences in the eurozone (especially in Germany) and Greece (see 25 billion euros) from the increase in defense spending, they will be seen by 2026, and especially in Greece there are very small ones as some of the 1/5 of the relevant expenditure will concern the domestic industry.
It is emphasized that A distinct sedimentation of the European economy in the summer would hit the Greek economy at its strong point, namely tourism …
A potential, so much reduction in Greek growth estimates in mid -2025 could lead to a downward revision the threshold of increasing public spending, bank executives on newsit.gr, eg from 3.6% to 2.5%.
However, since this downward revision will have the lowest growth (or even recession) as a source, this (ie the lower growth) will lead to lower costs for increases in the main pensions on January 1, 2026, as they are calculated in line with the growth rate of GDP growth.
Specifically, the rate of increase in pensions is determined by 50% of GDP and by 50% of inflation.
Thus, if the prediction was confirmed (which is difficult…) the 2.3% growth prediction and 2.1% inflation this year, there would be a 2.2% increase in pensions on 1 January 2026.
If growth and inflation run close to 1%, then 1% increase on January 1, 2026, resulting in not only a minimal increase in beneficiaries, but a minimal depreciation of the personal difference of old retirees, which may raise scenarios of abolishing it (in order to receive it too much).
It is noted, however, that the existing insurance law provides for a shield against possible reductions in the main pensions, if the average GDP and inflation falls on negative territory.
In this case, it is foreseen Freezing and not a “ax” in pensions.