Two main mines are facing the course of the Greek economy – and with it pensions and salaries – to this summer. The first mine is the recession and the second the expensive euro.
The recession can … knock on the door of the Greek economy, as the Eurozone economy “breaks” the 10% duties imposed by the US on all EU imports. Although Trump suspended 2025% by July 2025, the ratio of 14%, the other to do so, European growth rate. The expensive euro, which has come as a result of the dollar’s devaluation, is affecting EU exports to other countries, beyond the US as it raises their prices.
And at a time when the fear in Brussels is widespread, that China will turn part of its exports from the US (in order to avoid duties 145%) to other countries, including European countries, possibly displacing more expensive European products than their markets.
At the same time, the reduction in interest rates of the European Central Bank (ECB) by 0.25 points on Good Thursday, April 17, 2025, is slightly estimated by analysts that it can support the European economy to face “external” recessions (due to the tariff war), let alone ” billion euros) with the aim of re -equipping it, as provided by the White Paper presented by the Commission on March 19, 2025 (Rearmeu 2030).
Although only two EU member states have expressed a clear intention of decisively increasing their defense spending, namely Germany and Greece, analysts are expecting that the German 1.1 trillion package. euro (not only for defense but also in infrastructure) could bring up not only German but also the European economy.
The two mines above (expensive euro, recession) will have mainly indirect (and not direct) negative effects on the Greek economy, but that does not mean that they will be … small.
And this is because of the giant dependency on the EU, both at the export level (as the absolute majority of them are directed to European markets), as well as at the level of funding and foreign visitors (as the majority also comes from the EU).
Consequently, any blow to the European economy will also cause a blow to Greek, with analysts seeing at least 0.5%. That is, for every 1% of European GDP, Greek GDP will lose at least 0.5%.
Otherwise, the expensive euro is in the interest of imports of products, along with oil (at the same time that its international price is plunged) into Greece by third (ie outside the eurozone) countries, as it makes them cheaper for Greek importers and thus for Greek consumers.
On the other hand, however, the expensive euro (as it is expected to hit European exports) is lowering the bar for non -European tourists waiting for Greece next summer, above all the US, which has been an ever -expanding “tank” of visitors in recent years.
Any loss in the rate of growth of Greek GDP means that the bar descends not only state revenue from taxes and contributions, but also increases in the main pensions and salaries in both the private and public sectors. This correlation is not “theoretical” but is based on the existing institutional framework that wants increases in the main pensions (under Katrougalos law), but the minimum wage and wages in the public (under the law) in 2026 to be determined on the basis of -and -the rate of economic growth.
Taking into account the most extreme scenario (but not unlikely) at the moment, that is, the recession in the Greek economy in 2025, we will be brought to freeze the increases of main pensions, minimum wages and pay in the State in 2026.