A noticeable “invoice” will be invited to pay the country if the scenarios are verified for the US and European Union Agreement (EU) for reciprocal duties 15%, including Greek exports.
Obviously the realization of this may be much less aggravating than the most unfavorable 30% duty scenario on EU exports if the negotiations do not succeed, but again, the cost is not negligible.
These impacts can be expressed in two ways, depending on how the market chooses to manage the new treaty. As duties are paid by importers in the country’s destination country, inevitably the extra costs will lead to a reduction in demand, as some of them will turn to other, more economical solutions. However, if the Greek exporters, in order to avoid the loss of the share of the US market, choose to absorb the new tariff costs themselves, then in this case they will see their profit margins shrink.
Fears of falling demand
The most reasonable scenario is that Greek exporters (basically small and medium -sized businesses, especially in the agri -food sector), not being able to bear the costs will be forced to see the demand for their products to decrease.
An analysis of the Piraeus Chamber of Commerce and Industry (EBEP), which was based on the 30%scenario, warned that Greek exports to the US could be reduced by 20–25%, with losses of up to € 0.5 billion, from a total of 2.41 billion euros (2024 data). Although the data now shows 15%duty application, the damage remains serious, both direct and indirect. Based on the calculations of EBEP and international practice, imposing such commercial barriers could lead to a decline in demand by about 10%. In other words, € 241 million is estimated to be lost due to the decline in demand by US consumers or importers.
In the hypothetical scenario that exporters choose to absorb the extra cost in order to remain competitive, which is not always feasible as the profit margins are already small and further decrease in them would mean zero) the immediate tariff costs for all Greek exports could exceed 360 million euros.
For the “champions” of agri -food exports, table olives, the cost could amount to € 36.2 million. The cost to olive oil exporters is € 13.5 million, a feta of € 8 million, a wine of € 2.85 million, canned peaches to € 18 million, with the total cost for agricultural products rising to 77.6 million euros.
Even bigger will be the potential losses in industrial products and other sectors, which could lose up to 285m euros, but usually these sectors have better absorption of costs within the value chain as opposed to agri -food companies.
In the above direct consequences, the indirect consequences that will burden Greek exports and which are currently … incalculable should also be taken into account.