New challenges for Greek producers and olive oil businesses are brought by duties imposed by the US president Donald Trump In imported products in the US.
Specifically, 20% Trump duties in Europe create enormous uncertainty in the Greek market olive oilwhich exports 7-8 thousand tons of olive oil to the US.
«Greek exports are around 20-21% of total exports of packaged olive oil“, Said yesterday (8.4.2025) by the President of EDOE and CEO of ELSAP, Manolis Giannoulis, at the Conference” Edible Oils: International Market, Industry and Research “, organized by soy mills and Greek fine oils.
The conference was also attended by the Secretary General of the Ministry of Rural Development and Food, George Stratakos, who stressed that “the Greek government is working systematically to limit the adverse effects on exports of primary products to the US, which will arise from the duties”. In particular, The programs implemented during the current period in the olive oil sector are 4, with a total budget reaching € 6.5 million.
“As far as duties are concerned,” Mr Stratakos continued, “Greece insists on having a single reaction as a European Union, which will be specialized in the coming weeks. It is certain that we will fight to defend our national interests. ”
He went on to say that “the Greek olive sector faces many challenges, which require the development of special strategies to overcome and ensure the viability and durability of the sector. At the Ministry we work intensively and always in collaboration with the industry representatives to ensure all those tools and to chart all the policies that will contribute to achieving our common goals, that is, Increasing the competitiveness of Greek agricultural products and in achieving viability for Greek farmers and processors».
Commenting on the duties, Sogia Mill Market Manager Christos Predos noted that “we should closely monitor the evolution of the producers of 2025-2026, the price of oil, the equivals, the geopolitics as well as the trade war between the US and the US.”
“Especially, Imposing duties and wars have created great volatility and imbalance in seed prices In countries, they have limited or increased consumption, have changed the flow of freight movement and above all have reduced the trust of the commercial world to maintain sufficient stocks for the smooth and effective operation of the processor supplier and a final consumer chain, “he commented.
The biggest players in world olive oil production
The average global olive oil production has tripled In the past 60-65 years, with the volume of production now being shaped in 3 million tonnes compared to 1 million tonnes in the 1960s.
The largest producer of olive oil is the Spainwith a share of about 35% of world production and follow Italy, Portugal and Greece. Overall, These 4 countries produce the 60% of world production, while in the rest of the Mediterranean basin (Turkey, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Israel) it is about 30%.
Therefore, out of 3 million tonnes of olive oil of the average annual production, In the Mediterranean basin, about 90% produces, ie 2.7 million tonnes.
«The American consumes about 370,000 tonnes of olive oil, of which it produces 20,000 tonnes. Therefore, the rest will need to be purchased by the Mediterranean basin“, Mr. Giannoulis stressed.
In olive oil there is a quantity and price relationship, which is inversely proportional. When the amount of production goes up, the price decreases, and when production decreases, the price increases. “We saw the extreme phenomenon last year, when we had historically low world production, resulting in historically high worldwide prices. Price over the past 5 years has been ranged at producer level out of 2 euros per kilo to 9.5 euros per kilo. Today, we are in a significant decrease since production has been restored to normal levels, “said Giannoulis.
The protagonist in world production
In the world production of vegetable oils, palm oil is starring, with the main producers in Indonesia and Malaysia. It follows soybean oil with the US, Brazil and Argentina being the main producers and third the rapeseed mainly produced in the EU, Canada, Australia and India. For sunflower oil, the main producers are Russia, Ukraine and the EU and finally, corn oil is mainly produced in the US, China and Brazil.
For 2024-2025, global consumption is estimated to move to 202 million, while in 2023-2024 the corresponding number was 196 million and in 2022-2023 it was 189 million.
In the last three years, the increasing demand for human and technical seed oils has been covered with difficulty reducing security reserves with the exception of the high production of soybean oil in 2024-2025.
“His crop saved the good image of seed oils on the world map. From 4,492 million tonnes the total amount available in 2023-2024 was 528 million tonnes, ie about 35 million tonnes. We are talking about 7 million tonnes of oil, “observed Soya Mill Primary Director Christos Predos, speaking at the conference yesterday.
“So what we lost from sunflower oil, rails and the lack of palm oil growth was covered by soybean oil. For the coming months, soybean oil will continue to star in the tendency of its honor, as well as other seed oils. Much will depend on the trade war that has erupted, “he said.
Regarding the consumption of the European Union, it is 19 million for 2024-2025, reduced by 2023-2024 to 22 million and 2022-2023 at 22.5 million. The decrease in reduced seed oil for technical use (as biochecism) is mainly responsible for the decline.
Evolution of international prices in seeds
Regarding the rates of seed oils, traditionally sunflower oil was in premium compared to the others, followed by the rapeseed, after soybean oil and cheaper of all was palm oil.
After January 2022, this image changed radically. From where the palm oil was the fourth cheaper oil out of the five, it managed to pass the sunflower oil and become the new leader.
In November 2024, palm oil was $ 200 over the price of soybean oil. Today, this spread is in $ 100.
For the coming months, palm oil will remain in premium relative to soybean oil. Seeing the market at the base of fundamental analysis (supply and demand), for the following year the sunflower oil will remain in reasonable premium against other seed oils, rapeseed and soybean oil at close levels of price and palm oil higher than the last two seeds.