THE gold could be jumped to $ 5,000 a ounce if the US Federal Bank’s independence (USA (Fed) undermined and investors even transported a small part of their portfolios from state bonds to gold, according to Goldman Sachs.
“A scenario where Fed’s independence will be damaged will probably lead to higher inflation, lower shares and long -term bond prices, as well as erosion of the dollar status as a reserve currency,” analysts said. “On the contrary, gold is a reserve of value that is not based on the trust of the institutions.”
The bank described a series of possible metal developments, with a basic forecast for a rise of $ 4,000 per ounce by mid -2026, a scenario of so -called “tail risk” at $ 4,500 and an estimate of nearly $ 5,000 if only 1% of the private US government bond market.
Gold was one of the best performance this year, rising and reaching a historical high earlier this week. This rise is due to the accumulation by central banks and expectations that the Fed will soon start lowering interest rates in the US. Additional support came more recently when President Donald Trump took action to exercise more control over the Fed, including trying to remove Governor Lisa Cook.
“We estimate that if 1% of the private market for US government bonds were channeled to gold, the price of gold would rise to nearly $ 5,000 per ounce, assuming that everything else was stable,” analysts said. “As a result, gold remains our most powerful long -term composition in the field of goods.”
Goldman’s note – entitled “Differentiation of Commerce, especially Gold” – did not detail recent developments in the Fed, including the movement against Cook or Trump’s criticism of policy decisions.
However, as the challenges for the US Central Bank are growing, senior global market executives have expressed concern about the possible consequences. Among them, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the loss of Fed’s independence would be a “serious danger” to the world.
The price of gold last up to $ 3,530 per ounce, after reaching a record of over $ 3,578 yesterday Wednesday (3.9.2025).