In “idling” until the middle of 2026, it seems that they will remain both Germany as well as the rest of the European Union, regarding the initiation of new expenditures for the defensedue to the impending revision of Germany’s constitutional “debt brake”.
In particular, the provision of the constitution on the relaxation of the “debt brake”, is considered a condition for any significant increase in government defense spending in Germany.
In more detail, according to yesterday’s (11.11.25) announcement by the German Ministry of Finance, the Committee of Experts set up to modernize the constitutional “debt brake”will present its final report in the first quarter of 2026.
As stated by the Federal Finance Minister, Lars Klingbeil“we need a smart modernization of the ‘debt brake’ to ensure both stability and sustainability.” The government is waiting for this report in order to launch the legislative reform that will determine the new spending framework for the coming years.
The work of the committee of the German Ministry of Finance focuses on:
- at sustainability of investments and development and public finances
- in compatibility with them EU fiscal rules (s.s. Stability Pact)
- on sector-specific exemptions for defense-related expenditure and transitional arrangements after a state of emergency
- as well as her monitoring and him limitation of public debt
The final report of the Commission will serve as a basis for the reform envisaged in the coalition agreement with the legislative process starting soon after.
In practice, according to analysts, this means that no substantial increase in equipment spending – not only in Germany but also throughout the EU – not expected before mid-2026. This delay, as Germany is the “engine” of the European ReArm EU program, may affect rates of achievement of NATO defense spending targets (5% of GDP) and redefine the “mix” of budgets in the EU member states.
At the same time, the Bundesbank suggested yesterday, in the context of the public debate that has opened in Germany, to determine the relaxation of the constitutional “debt brake”either a tight cap on regular spending or tax increases, rather than unlimited defense borrowing. The Central Bank of Germany, points to the need for fiscal discipline in line with the Stability Pactvalid from January 1, 2025, even after activation of the escape clause to increase defense spending up to 1.5% of GDP.
Thus, while Europe attempts to strengthen its strategic autonomy, the “German brake” remains the decisive element regulating the pace and extent of defense investment – at least until the process is completed in March 2026.