OR France It is again in a very short period of time in a new phase of instability policy, as the Prime Minister last Monday (25/8/2025) François Bairou He surprised the country, announcing that on September 8 he would seek a vote of confidence in his government. However, it is well known that most parties do not agree with the strict austerity measures he proposes and his stay seems to be the least likely scenario so far.
The National Assembly will hold an extraordinary meeting to decide whether the government of François Bairou is capable of continuing its work and proceeding with measures aimed at reducing France’s deficit.
The measures, which include even the abolition of two national holidays, as Bayrou had proposed, have sparked strong reactions, both by politicians of all sides and from society.
It is of course recalled that Demonstrations are scheduled for September 10with the organizers calling on a nationwide strike.
In mid -July, Bayrou defended his budget, claiming to be It is necessary to cut 43.8 billion euros in spending to stop excessive deficit. “It’s the last stop before the cliff, before we crushed our debt”he had said.
If he wins the confidence vote on September 8, he will have taken the first step in implementing his measures, despite the general popular discontent. But if it loses it, he will be forced to resign, leaving France without prime minister, for the third time in 12 months, and without an approved budget.
What are the possible scenarios for the September 8 vote
1. The Bairo government wins the vote of confidence
There is, of course, this scenario which is the least likely, as the prime minister does not appear to have the confidence and the necessary votes of the others. After the early June 2024 elections, parliament is deeply divided into three blocks:
- The left alliance,
- Macron’s center -centers with center -right allies,
- Marin Lepen’s far -right national alarm and his allies.
For the absolute majority required 289 votes, But pro -government is far from that number. The only hope would be the abstinence of the National Alarm (123 seats), as has happened in previous votes of confidence, but there is no evidence that this will happen.
All the big partiesfrom the far right to the far left, have stated that they will not support the plan.
Despite the difficulties he faces, Bayrou called on the political forces to “think again”, noting that they have 13 days to decide “If they are on the side of chaos or responsibility.”
2. The Bayrou government loses and Macron appoints a new prime minister
The most likely scenario is the defeat by BairoHis subsequent resignation. But then Macron should designate seventh prime minister within his term of office.
Bairou is 9 months in the post of prime minister, more than his predecessor, Michel Barnier, who was removed after just 3 months due to failure to pass the budget.
Macron may turn either to the left or to the right To reinforce his alliance, but any new prime minister will find himself trapped in this political impasse that torments every new prime minister for a long time.
In the past they had been heard of names like the Cigarette (Minister of Defense, Right) and former Socialist Prime Minister Bernard Kaznev. However, many analysts find it possible to see another fragile co -operation government, with temporary measures and a center sign.
The constant political impasse will remain in the center of interest over the two years left until the end of Macron’s term in 2027. Despite the growing calls for resignation, he insists that he will remain until the end of his term.
At the same time, the leader of the disobedient France Jean-Lucchon He reiterated his request for resignation of the President, stating:
“Macron is the chaos. He has to leave. “
3. The Bayrou government loses, Macron announces new elections
Since a year has passed since the last parliamentary elections, Emmanuel Macron It may if he wants to dismantle parliament and call early elections.
However, he himself declares opposite to this possibilityas there is no guarantee that the result will favor it. On the contrary, Marin Lepen strongly supports the script This, as polls show that her party will probably double its seats.
According to a recent IFOP survey on the LCI channel, 63% of the French are in favor of dismantling the National Assembly and holding new elections. At the same time, two in three polls They show that citizens want Macron’s resignation.
Even if the national alarm comes out the first party, it is unlikely to secure a parliamentary majority.
The National Assembly thus will remain divided into three Incompatible blocks, which, as analysts warn, could extend the crisis.