OR France He is trapped in a financial meteoric step, no budget and may soon, without government, as the Prime Minister, François Bairou He called on parliament to vote for confidence on September 8th.
The opposition has been united and it seems to be aimed at throwing the government of François Bairou, a few months after its formation after the election in France.
On Tuesday, the Socialist Party (PS) was added to the voices of disagreement, allying with the Greens and the far -right national alarm.
In an attempt to prevent a negative vote, Finance Minister Eric Lobard said publicly that France’s help from the International Monetary Fund “is a danger ahead of us,” the Guardian said in a report.
Without the Socialists, the center -right government of Bairou cannot survive. And many economists agree that its decline will trigger further concern about the health of the economy and public finances.
The image of public finances
At first glance, France’s situation seems far from being hopeless. It is a pillar of the Eurosystem. The government’s debt compared to GDP is lower than that of Italy, while the cost of serving the annual debt is much lower than the United Kingdom.
However, while French debt/GDP ratio is less than 135% of Italy, Rome maintains strict control over its annual spending.
Italy may suffer from low growth, but not lower than France; the Commission even provides for time and low inflation. At the same time, the deficit is expected to decline from 3.3% this year to 2.9% in 2026, below the 3% threshold.
France, on the other hand, quickly closes its neighbor’s scissors, as projections show a persistent annual deficit that will raise the debt/GDP ratio of 113% last year to over 120% at the end of the decade.
The weight of public debt
For international investors, debt size is not as important as its orbit.
Thus, while the cost of French debt is low, at 3.5% for 10 years bonds (when the United Kingdom pays 4.7%), it is not as low as Italy. Even Greece is superior to France.
According to the ECB, Greece has a debt/GDP ratio of 158%, but pays only 3.36% for its 10 -year bonds.
Macron’s warnings
The president Emmanuel Macron He has tried to convince the French people that public finances need significant “surgery”, but to no avail.
He has warned against complacency, saying that “the years of abundance are over.” Perhaps its most unpopular action so far has been the increase in the retirement limit of 62 years, arguing that increased pension spending weigh the state budget and deprive the economy of the workforce.
Bairo’s plans
The Bairo minority government intends to move further. It plans to save nearly 44 billion euros to reduce the deficit from 5.8% of GDP in 2023 to 4.6% in 2026. One of the most controversial proposals is to remove two public holidays in France.
The only solution seems to be the budget to reform to attract the socialists, though months of political conflict make this like that may seem distant.
From the “yellow vests” to Esseniels
To one perioda political and militant movement for the reconstruction of France made its appearance. Esseniels, as they are called, have a slogan “block the country” and are preparing mobilizations on September 10, two days after the critical future of the French government, plenary in the French National Assembly
The movement seems to have first appeared in Tiktok, with anti-European and nationalist complexion and quickly appeared to have been known with the support of the “yellow vests” and other colleges such as the Indignons-Nous network, which works mainly through the Telegram platform.
In the political arena, Jean-Luc Melanson’s La France Insoumise subscribes to the call, finding support from ecologists.
On the contrary, the French far -right keeps distances, although a significant part of its voters indicates positive in participation. Large trade unions are facing cautious mobilization, with the exception of CGT.
It is recalled that the Bairo government is in danger of becoming the second government that will collapse in France in less than a year, as no opposition party has so far stated that it will give a vote of confidence.