One after the other, the international companies upgrade their forecast for the course of the Greek economy and the development at levels much higher than those provided by the government. This development opens a window for new ones tax breaks, since a possible exceedance of the targets will leave, as is logical, a larger budgetary space for interventions in the financial staff.
The Minister of Finance, Christos Staikouras, in fact yesterday (14.09.2021) argued that if the growth of the economy is greater than where the government has set the bar, then there will be room for greater interventions and tax relief.
More specifically, the minister stressed “it is obvious that the higher the rate of economic growth, the more medium-term budgetary margins are created so that we can make additional interventions. I hope that the rate of economic growth will be even higher (from 5.9%), so that we have the financial margin to help the Greek society even more “.
The truth is that in the government they expect strong growth above the forecasts and they focus this on the image that the precursors show.
As Christos Staikouras has characteristically stated, “this is a strong recovery, covering more than 2/3 of the 2020 loss. And it is a completely realistic forecast, which may even prove to be conservative again, based on the precursors of the economy”.
Development… from the outside
This optimistic assessment seems to be adopted by foreign companies and markets in general. According to information in the near future we will see a barrage of improved revisions for the course of GDP in the country in 2021, which will be well above the estimates of the Greek government and more specifically in the region of 7% to 9% .
In fact, yesterday Moody’s Analytics raised the bar for growth of the Greek economy to 8.2%, estimating that the Greek economy is one of the seven economies of the eurozone, which have already covered the “wounds” of the pandemic in terms of GDP.
We already got a first taste last Friday when the upgrade of the Greek economy was announced by the only European rating agency, Scope Ratings. The house estimates that there will be 8.6% growth in 2021.
This was immediately followed by Wood, which proceeded with a new positive revision to increase GDP to 6.5%.
In particular, Scope Ratings expects a growth rate of Greek GDP of 8.6% for 2021 – from 6.5% previously forecast – and 3.5% in 2022, stressing that the economy has recovered to pre-crisis production levels since in the second quarter of 2021. At the same time, Scope reports that forced savings are spent after reopening and boosted by monetary and fiscal incentives, including EU funding inflows.
The new estimates of Scope Ratings acquire special weight due to the recent upgrade of the Greek economy to BB + with stable prospects from the same company.
At the same wavelength is the rating agency Wood, which expects growth of 6.5% for Greece in 2021 – from 3.6% before – and 4% for 2022. According to Wood, GDP growth puts the Greece at a higher level than before the pandemic and on a good path to GDP growth well above 6% in 2021.
The forecasts are expected to be equally positive from the other houses with significantly improved revisions of the forecasts.
The new DBRS verdict for Greece is expected to make the start on Friday, while the Fitch and S&P papers will be opened immediately, with the bar, as reported by information, rising by at least more than 7%.
Of course, others will take their place, such as international banks and organizations.
Three events have played an important role in this whole picture.
- The very low recession to 2.3% in the first 3 months of the year, which positively surprised even the most optimistic.
- Impressive performance at 2The quarter, growth of 16.2%, well above the forecasts and the Eurozone average.
- The good course of tourism, above the forecasts, which foretells an also good 3The Semester.
READ ALSO