In one summer with extreme weather, it is to give June cool and wet starting in northern Europe, upsetting energy markets increasingly dependent on solar and wind energy.
High pressure systems are projected to return later this month, bringing the risk of heat this summer after an unusually dry and sunny spring. This will increase the energy demand for cooling, though The impact on gas prices will also depend on increased solar production and nuclear production levels in France.
“This summer seems to be a summer with a lot of impact,” said Andrew Pedrini, a meteorologist at the Atmospheric G2. “We will hear a lot about extreme phenomena.”
Further south, the Mediterranean was already unusually warm, with temperatures that reached almost 39 degrees Celsius in Seville on May 30, the warmest day in Spain that month since 1950. Along with the Balkans and Southeast Europe, this region is likely to experience this area. Even the Scandinavian countries are expected to have temperatures above average most of the period, according to data from the European Center for Medium Term Meteorological Forecasts.
The shift to warm, dry and calm conditions in June is expected to be extended and repeated throughout the summer, according to prediction models. As high -pressure standards prevent cool, liquid air from the Atlantic, wind energy production will be reduced, while the production of solar energy will be launched.
Many basic rivers across Europe, including the Rhine, have recovered from the low levels caused by the warm, dry periods this spring. Heavy rainfall and snow melting have raised river levels, after a dry, warm spring, but extreme heat could reverse these profits, especially in the Alps, where hydroelectric reservoir levels in Switzerland are well below normal.
“The risks of hydroelectric power due to drought remain,” according to a note by the Inspired energy consultant.
But the supply-demand balance is becoming increasingly complicated with the greatest penetration of intermittent production from renewable energy, said Nick Campbell, Inspired’s chief executive.
“In the coming months we will see this play in real time, if we look at the warm days, then the reduction in wind production will mean that gas will be called upon to meet the demand for cooling,” he said. This will raise the cost, he said.
Nephoches’ forecasts are unusually low in many areas, increasing the prospect of sunshine and solar production, especially in the southeast.
“This is a truly powerful signal,” said Tod Crawford, Vice President of the Atmospheric G2 meteorology. “I haven’t seen such a signal from the models.”
Electricity and gas traders will carefully consider developments throughout the summer, as Europe’s growing dependence on renewable energy has enhanced the role of weather changes, according to Marco Saalfrank, head of trade in the continental Europe.
“As a result, weather events now have a more direct and significant impact on the market,” Saalfrank said in an interview.