Losses, which will reach 43 billion euros in the short term, caused by extreme weather conditions that hit the Europe This summer in Europe. It is estimated that this costs will increase to 126 billion euros by 2029…
The immediate impact on the economy from a single hard summer with heat, drought and floods in Europe amounted to 0.26 % of the EU economic product in 2024, according to rapid analysis, which has not been evaluated but is based on relationships between weather conditions and financial data published in this month.
According to an article by the Guardian, the greatest losses were recorded in Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Bulgaria, each of which had short -term losses of more than 1% of the “gross value added” (APA) of 2024, a meter similar to GDP. Other Mediterranean countries, such as Spain, Italy and Portugal, followed.
Economists at the University of Mannheim and the European Central Bank described the results as “conservatives” because they did not take into account the unprecedented fires that burned southern Europe last month or the impact of extreme weather events.
Sehrish USman, an economist at the University of Mannheim and the main author of the study, said the study’s “timely estimates” could help policy makers target the support in the absence of official data. ‘The actual cost of extreme weather phenomena occurs slowlybecause these phenomena affect life and means of living through a wide range of channels that extend beyond the original impact. “
Scientists hastened to calculate to what extent global warming has exacerbated extreme weather conditions this summer, with studies indicating that climate change made hot weather 40 times more likely in Spain and Portugal and 10 times more likely in Greece. The number of deaths from June’s “quietly devastating” heatwave is estimated to have tripled in 12 major cities due to pollution that causes global warming.
Long -term effects
While most surveys on the financial cost of climate collapse are considering direct impacts, such as the destruction of assets or insured losses, the authors of the new study used historical relationships between violent weather and economic production to take into account the secondary hours of labor, from floods that caused damage to the railways.
Stéphane Hallegatte, a head of climate economist at the World Bank, who did not participate in the study, said that it has confirmed that the wider economic effects of extreme weather are greater than the immediate effects and lasts longer than people imagine.
“For a long time, I have argued that we need to shift our attention from the immediate damage caused by the disasters to broader indicators that reflect the economic impact more fully, so I am very pleased that the study is doing just that,” he said.
However, he warned that the study used “imperfect approaches” to determine extreme weather, which would probably lead to a devaluation of overall costs. GVA did not record the total cost of extreme weather for humans and businesses, he added, nor the benefits of reducing vulnerability.
“Especially when disasters affect poor communities and people, the impact on gross added value can be minimal because these people are poor,” Hallegatte said. “But that doesn’t mean they won’t suffer.”
Gert Bijnens, an economist at the Belgian National Bank, who did not participate in the study, said that Supply chain interruption was one of the most important ‘hidden costs’ usually not calculated. A study that signed on the cost of catastrophic floods in Belgium in 2021 found that sales of manufacturing companies far from the disaster declined sharply if they had long -term suppliers in flooded areas.
Violation of such effects could underestimate damage by 30%, Bijnen said.
“Of course, such estimates are accompanied by uncertainty, as they are based on historical averages and cannot yet fully capture complex events,” he added. “But the big message is clear: Extreme weather conditions already leave an important economic footprint And the indirect effects can be as disastrous as immediate destruction. “