The eyes of the entire planet are focused on the White House, from where the Donald Trumpat 23.00 Greek time, will announce the enforcement plan dictatorialat an event in the White House Rhodes Garden.
What is expected with particular interest is the size and target of duties. According to the Washington Post, Trump’s advisers are developing a plan to increase the tariffs on the products by about 20% for almost all countries, instead of the most targeted approach also examined.
The US government estimates that with the new duties it will earn $ 6 trillion, which could be returned to American citizens. One consultant said, however, that any reference before the official announcements is but a “simple guess”.
The Republican president has already imposed duties on steel and aluminum imports and increased duties for all imported Chinese products, exacerbating tensions with his country’s largest commercial partners.
Scenario 1: duties to all countries
According to this scenario, the US president, arguing that it is time for the US to change the rules of the world economy and with a secondary – but basic in rhetorical Trump – arguments that the country loses a huge amounts of huge amounts from the unexplained trademark of the world.
In this scenario, or duties will be imposed on both the finals and raw materials, or the plan that the US president himself has presented to his government for at least two months will be implemented.
Scenario 2: Duties in specific categories and specific countries
According to this scenario, Donald Trump chooses a more conservative approach, imposing new tariffs on more countries than he has already announced so far, but not for all imports.
Most likely, if Trump makes this choice, there will be an important issue after the vehicle, but also of steel and in the drug industry, a commitment that has also given pre -election. There will also be exceptions in the countries, with Trump leaving a list of close “friends” and “allies”, but in no way Europe.
Wall Street’s investment banks report in their reports that if duties are generalized and around 15%, the growth rate of the US economy will be reduced to 1% for 2025, while 35% increased the chances of the United States in recession by 2026 (Goldman Sachs).
More difficult is the scenario for the World Organization “EY”, which in its report states that with 20%duties, the US economy in 2026 will enter a recession. The whole situation will also support the indicators of unemployment as well as inflation.