Development with “Asterisks”: The big duty question mark and the critical days

One after another International and Domestic Bodies praise the Greek rhythms growth by depositing particularly positive forecasts, but without neglecting an important asterisk: that of the outcome of the war of their war dictatorial which threatens to overturn any assessment of the course of the world economy.

And this is because while the markets have been “tired” in relation to the shock of April, but almost half the three -month ceasefire between the US and the EU has already gone without real effect in the negotiations, as the US president is complaining. This means that if a commonly accepted solution has not been found on July 8, then US duties on imports from Europe will double, from 10% to 20% (with Donald Trump’s latest “pressure” exercises to say … 50%, even from June 1st), while the staffs of the bodies consider that there will be a significant impact on international and Greek development, particularly indirectly, as Greece’s exports are largely dependent on the economic health of its European partners.

In essence, all of Europe, but also in particular Greece, in what concerns us, is proceeding with a “borrowing time” until July 8, with the risk of confirming the most unfavorable scenario and feeling the real consequences of the trade war, making all the estimates of growth rates and other macro.

Commission’s spring forecasts

The last example was recorded in the Spring Forecasts of the Commission published this week. According to the report for 2025, The Greek economy is expected to maintain its potential, with a predicted GDP increase of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026. These growth rates exceed the eurozone average, which is estimated at 0.9% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026.

Regarding the impact of duties, the Commission notes that Greece’s immediate exposure is limited due to the relatively weak direct and indirect trade ties with the US. Howeverit is noted that Risks to growth prospects have increased and are downwardas the persistent increase in commercial and geopolitical uncertainty, along with the deterioration of global economic prospects, could negatively affect Greek exports, especially in the tourism sector.

Overall, it is noted that while Greece seems to maintain a strong economic trend, external risks, such as commercial tensions and global uncertainty, require continuous monitoring and adaptation of economic policy to ensure sustainable development.

Cautious and the Bank of Greece

The Bank of Greece, in its recent estimates of 2025 in the context of the financial stability report, predicts growth rate of 2.3%, exceeding the average eurozone. Regarding the impact of the US duties, the Bank of Greece notes that Greece’s immediate report is limited, as exports to the US account for about 5% of the country’s total exports.

However, it is noted that a general deceleration of world trade could negatively affect the demand for Greek products and services, limiting growth prospects.

In addition, the Bank of Greece stresses that US tariff policies are one of the main external dangers For the Greek economy, as they may hurt European exports, especially in critical industries.

In conclusion, while the Central Bank recognizes that the immediate impact of duties are limited to Greece, the indirect consequences through the slowdown in global trade and increased uncertainty in markets are important factors that could affect the Greek economy.

Deading perspectives from IOBE

In the same spirit, IOBE’s latest forecasts were also a month ago. According to the latest quarterly report on the Greek economy, a growth rate of 2.2%for 2025 is foreseen, with the main levers being the strengthening of fixed investment (+9.5%) and the restrained increase in private consumption (+1.6%). However, the report highlights increased external risks, such as the possible protectionism to international trade by the new US government, which could negatively affect exports and tourism demand.

IOBE revised the prediction for GDP growth in 2025 from 2.4% to 2.2%citing the impact of US duties. Although Greece’s immediate exports to the US are limited (about 5% of total exports), the indirect impacts through reduced demand from other EU countries and increased global uncertainty may negatively affect investment and exports.

The IOBE report emphasizes that while the Greek economy shows durability, external risks, such as commercial tensions and global uncertainty, require continuous monitoring and adaptation of economic policy to ensure sustainable development.

Fitch: positive prospects but with warnings

Corresponding notes were submitted on 16 May 2025, and the Fitch Ratings Evaluation House when revised Greece’s perspective from “fixed” to “positive”, keeping the score on BBB-. The report notes that the immediate risks to Greece from the World War is small, as exports to the US account for only 4% of the country’s total exports, significantly lower than the EU average.

However, it is noted that a more serious slowdown in the major EU economies could have a significant negative impact on Greece.

Fitch predicts the Greek economy will continue to grow at a rate of more than 2% in 2025 and 2026far exceeding the eurozone average, estimated at 0.4% for 2025.

In summary, while Greece’s immediate exposure to the trade war is limited, Fitch highlights the need to monitor developments in major European economies, as it could negatively affect the Greek economy.

Source link

Leave a Comment